AI Cracks: Where Do You Hide?

Bullish:

• $XBI - Avi is bullish on biotech ETFs as AI will revolutionize drug discovery, reduce costs, and cause an industry-wide rerating. He bought more XBI and views it as great risk/reward with a multi-year base breakout setup.

  • “Another example is why I'm spending all this time on biotech and why I just bought a ton more ArcG and I bought a lot more of the XBI biotech ETF.”

    Avi·10:20

  • “I'm trying to figure out, okay, well, what's actually going to be impacted downstream from AI? If the market's gonna crack and the general approach is, okay, hyperscalers are cooked, memory is cooked, you know, what's what's gonna happen next, it's what is AI actually gonna affect in the real economy. And then you kind of have to hide there.”

    Avi·10:50

  • “Yeah. And by the way, like, biotech is, like, great risk reward right now.”

    Avi·11:55

  • “I personally am very convicted in the idea that biotech is going to be radically changed, and the entire industry will rerate because we are going to be able to produce more drugs at a cheaper cost and serve more people.”

    Avi·46:59

  • “But as an ETF, if I buy XPI and I buy ARCG, I'm basically making the bet that the entire industry is gonna rerate, and that's why I actually have mostly XBI because it's a much larger selection. It's like more it it's a wider piece of the biotech world, and it's more of an index on the actual industry”

    Avi·47:25
• $ARCG - Avi bought ARCG (ARK Genomic Revolution ETF) as a higher-octane biotech play on AI-driven drug discovery. He views the chart as one of the best he's seen, showing a multi-year base ready to break out.

  • “Another example is why I'm spending all this time on biotech and why I just bought a ton more ArcG and I bought a lot more of the XBI biotech ETF.”

    Avi·10:20

  • “And then the the best the best looking chart I've seen in a long time is ARC G. I mean, this is this is why you gotta just this is why you gotta just ape now. This is the Druckenmiller approach is you buy a little bit to force yourself to do research, and then you actually do the research. I'm still in the middle of the research, but that's just a good looking chart. I mean, that this this this is the this is the base. I mean, we based for freaking five years now, four years. We're gonna break out. That's gonna be good.”

    Avi·38:04

  • “ARCG is obviously a bet on the sort of higher octane, higher risk, higher reward. So I on the I own them in a 70%, 30% ratio”

    Avi·47:44
• $HOOD - Avi suggests buying HOOD (Robinhood) as a hedge against shorting crypto, noting asymmetric upside where HOOD can outperform even if crypto does poorly due to revenue diversification.

  • “People what you might wanna think about doing is if you if you're really scared to just short crypto, you can buy HUD and short crypto because I think there's an asymmetry there where if crypto does well, HUD does extremely well. But HUD can still do well even if crypto does poorly, at least relative to crypto. And the reason is because they're really expanding the revenues outside.”

    Avi·38:40
• $INTC - Avi recommended Intel to a young investor as part of the memory stock trade, suggesting the memory trade is still underpenetrated compared to hyperscalers.

  • “I did tell them to buy Intel. I really hope that that works out because it was not financial advice. I never give financial advice to anybody.”

    Avi·16:52

  • “The the memory trade is still maybe not fully penetrated. Like your taxi drivers are not buying memory stocks yet. Your 13 year olds are not buying memory stocks yet.”

    Avi·16:44
• $AAOI - Avi notes that AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics) performed really well as part of the downstream AI infrastructure build-out, representing where hyperscaler capital is flowing.

  • “I mean, AAOI, for example, I guess that's not that those are those are the optoelectronics. Right? That obviously performed really well.”

    Avi·9:45
• $ENERGY - Avi observes energy performing really well as part of the AI infrastructure build-out, as data centers require significant power.

  • “You see energy performing really well. I mean, basically, everything has gone downstream.”

    Avi·9:54

Bearish:

• $BTC - Both speakers are bearish on Bitcoin, citing technical breakdown below key range support targeting $49-53k, MSTR/STRC structural issues, and belief that Bitcoin is 'cooked' until Michael Saylor's strategy implodes spectacularly.

  • “Bitcoin's cooked. Bitcoin's cooked. Ethereum's cooked. Everything that doesn't make revenue right now is cooked. As long as there is a trade that has higher vol that is more interesting than crypto, you just can't buy Bitcoin.”

    Avi·32:48

  • “I shared a short trade a few weeks ago on this. I mean, basically what I said was, look, you have to once you reenter a range, let's see if I can share my screen here so that you understand what I'm talking about.”

    Avi·36:00

  • “You trade in a range. You break out of that range, and then you reenter, retest the bottom of the range. I mean, this is a phenomenal short. I mean, you can probably even I was talking about the the setup when we were trading at around 65. I said you basically wanna just short here and just ride it ride it down. I mean, this is my target here is gonna be, like, anywhere cover from 49 to 53.”

    Avi·36:33

  • “So my take is just short stay short the crypto complex, but have a list of assets that you would buy lower.”

    Avi·34:45

  • “I think Bitcoin on a sailor blow up, which feels inevitable at this point, because you you said he designed it with chat GPT. I I think he designed it, like, with a couple of friends over a table of God knows what at three in the morning. Like, it isn't poorly thought through.”

    Jonah·41:31

  • “It's very poorly concocted financial engineering.”

    Jonah·42:22

  • “Also, if the broader market implodes, it's not like Bitcoin is gonna hedge you. It's gonna go down twice as fast as the Nasdaq. So, yeah, just stay away, do your thing, and and just monitor monitor that situation.”

    Jonah·43:32
• $ETH - Avi states Ethereum is 'cooked' along with Bitcoin and other non-revenue generating crypto assets as AI trades offer better risk/reward.

  • “Bitcoin's cooked. Ethereum's cooked. Everything that doesn't make revenue right now is cooked.”

    Avi·32:50
• $MSTR - Speakers view MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy as unsustainable financial engineering that will blow up, with Saylor trapped between selling MSTR stock, Bitcoin, or STRC to fund dividends.

  • “Not only that, STRC is depegging. And the reason that it's is because, basically, the way that it works is in order to pay the dividend, you sort of need to do well, really one of three things. You can sell you can sell STRC itself to raise money. You can sell MSTR to raise money, or you can sell Bitcoin to, to, to, to raise money and pay out the dividend.”

    Avi·33:11

  • “And he can't sell Bitcoin right now because if he's if he keeps selling Bitcoin, Bitcoin's gonna collapse in on itself, and that's gonna be really bad. He's running, you know, he and then MSTR, basically, he he he he has to sell. He has to keep selling it. But if he keeps selling MSTR, what's what's gonna what's gonna happen is, obviously, that stock price is gonna go down. And so he's stuck.”

    Avi·33:47

  • “I think Bitcoin on a sailor blow up, which feels inevitable at this point, because you you said he designed it with chat GPT. I I think he designed it, like, with a couple of friends over a table of God knows what at three in the morning. Like, it isn't poorly thought through.”

    Jonah·41:31
• $SOL - Avi views Solana as 'fully cooked' with potential for 50% drawdown to $46 as part of broader crypto weakness.

  • “Solana, fully cooked as well. You could you could probably see 46. I mean, that nice 50% drawdown.”

    Avi·37:48
• $WLD - Avi recommends shorting Worldcoin as a better short than Bitcoin itself, noting it's oddly near recent highs and will likely fall to lows.

  • “Like, you probably wanna short something like a world coin instead, which is actually oddly near the highest of recent weeks. Like, that's this is for sure going down probably to the lows.”

    Avi·37:30
• $ACN - Avi suggests shorting Accenture as consulting firms will face reduced demand due to AI automation replacing their services.

  • “Great example of this is shorting Accenture. Right? Consulting firms are probably gonna be less in demand.”

    Avi·10:15
• $GOOGL - Avi observes cracks in hyperscaler stocks like Google, suggesting the trade has become saturated as even 13-year-olds are buying them, indicating potential for pullback.

  • “And now you're seeing cracks. And the things that are holding up the market are where those hyperscalers are putting their money now, not necessarily the Google meta, you know, Amazon price action themselves.”

    Avi·0:16

  • “And at that moment, it kind of struck me that if 13 year olds are buying single name stocks in the hyperscalers, maybe the trade's over.”

    Avi·15:23

  • “You might see the Nat you might see the Nasdaq come off. You might see, you know, Google come off. You might see Apple come off. You might see all these other assets come off because that trade has been saturated.”

    Avi·16:35
• $META - Avi sees Meta as part of the saturated hyperscaler trade showing cracks, with value shifting to what they're buying rather than the stocks themselves.

  • “And now you're seeing cracks. And the things that are holding up the market are where those hyperscalers are putting their money now, not necessarily the Google meta, you know, Amazon price action themselves.”

    Avi·0:16
• $AMZN - Avi includes Amazon in the hyperscaler stocks showing cracks as the trade becomes saturated and capital flows shift to infrastructure they're purchasing.

  • “And now you're seeing cracks. And the things that are holding up the market are where those hyperscalers are putting their money now, not necessarily the Google meta, you know, Amazon price action themselves.”

    Avi·0:16