Are Rate Cuts Dead? – 1000X

Are Rate Cuts Dead? – 1000X — Transcript

Market views

Bullish

SPACEX— SpaceX is a purely technical trade driven by low float and index buying before unlocks occur. The level ends when unlocks happen (20-30% after Q1 earnings, then 7% increments), but no major unlocks until August/September. Fundamentals don't matter short-term - this is a high FTV, low float meme coin with indices and retail FOMO driving it higher.
HOOD— Robinhood is capturing institutional trading volume and making inroads to institutionally capture trading. The core thesis is the 'everything app' - capturing the entire lifespan of a consumer into their product. Outperformed significantly (from 75 to 108) and expected to continue outperforming Bitcoin over the next six months.
EQUITIES— Broader equity markets are driven by flows and technicals rather than fundamentals. Markets are in a 'collecting gold coins before the level ends' phase where only credit crises can cause real selloffs. Geopolitical events (Iran war, Strait of Hormuz closure) barely moved markets, demonstrating resilience. The level ends when credit problems emerge or rate hikes occur, but we're nowhere near that.
BTC— Bitcoin MVRVZ score hard bounced off the buy zone (z-score around 0.25), flashing bullish across multiple markets. Oil collapse from Iran deal is extremely bearish for inflation, supporting the case for lower rates which benefits Bitcoin. However, timing caveat: needs to reach 'disdain' phase (not just current 'apathy') for optimal entry.

Bearish

BTC— Bitcoin is underperforming due to Michael Saylor's credit problem - the active float in Bitcoin has become Saylor who has credit issues. Bitcoin has lost mind share and become a 'sailor asset'. Market is in apathy mode but needs to reach true disdain before buying, suggesting more downside ahead.
REMX— America First defense contractor thesis may be weakening as Trump potentially takes his foot off the gas on geopolitical issues after mixed results (Venezuela success, tariffs struck down, Iran didn't go well). Less geopolitical conflict ahead could mean less investment in critical rare earth and defense assets.

Not investment advice.