Are Rate Cuts Dead?

Bullish:

• $SPACEX - SpaceX is a purely technical trade driven by low float and index buying before unlocks occur. The level ends when unlocks happen (20-30% after Q1 earnings, then 7% increments), but no major unlocks until August/September. Fundamentals don't matter short-term - this is a high FTV, low float meme coin with indices and retail FOMO driving it higher.

  • “SpaceX is a purely technical trade through the unlocks. So when does the level end? How you're collecting gold coins in SpaceX. When does the level end? The level ends when the unlocks occur.”

    Jonah·0:36

  • “In the short run, for SpaceX, this is a high FTV, low float meme coin. Fundamentals do not matter.”

    Jonah·21:18

  • “Until then, it's just indices buying and retail FOMO ing in right now, so you can be probably comfortably long. But the level is gonna end when the unlocks start happening.”

    Jonah·22:41

  • “So there are no until August or September, I guess, there there are no unlocks coming, and the SpaceX is gonna enter Nasdaq later this month. So we are at least going, I think, until August without anything major happening.”

    Avi·29:10
• $HOOD - Robinhood is capturing institutional trading volume and making inroads to institutionally capture trading. The core thesis is the 'everything app' - capturing the entire lifespan of a consumer into their product. Outperformed significantly (from 75 to 108) and expected to continue outperforming Bitcoin over the next six months.

  • “What what matters for Robinhood? Are they able to generate more money and higher margins from equities? Because they made a lot of money from cryptos, but are they able to diversify out of crypto and build really robust revenue streams? And they seem to be doing that. They got the Trump account. Right? And are they able to capture the entire lifespan of a consumer into their product? Because they're trying to be the end all be all financial application, and they seem to be doing that pretty well.”

    Avi·19:17

  • “The core thesis is the everything app.”

    Avi·20:17

  • “I think that Robinhood's gonna outperform Bitcoin over the next six months.”

    Avi·38:48
• $EQUITIES - Broader equity markets are driven by flows and technicals rather than fundamentals. Markets are in a 'collecting gold coins before the level ends' phase where only credit crises can cause real selloffs. Geopolitical events (Iran war, Strait of Hormuz closure) barely moved markets, demonstrating resilience. The level ends when credit problems emerge or rate hikes occur, but we're nowhere near that.

  • “So many people are still playing the old game of fundamentals, and they're not playing the new game of flows. And so we just have to continue to play the new game of flows. You as the listener, you as the investor, you as the trader, play the game of flows now. Forget the game of fundamentals.”

    Avi·0:00

  • “There's no real sell off without a credit crisis.”

    Jonah·4:06

  • “We barely had a sell off. We had a full blown war with Iran, and we barely had a sell off. We had the straight of Hormuz shut, and we barely had a sell off. What is gonna tank what is gonna tank the market?”

    Avi·2:34

  • “The only thing that's gonna be able to affect them is forget war. Forget this. Forget that. It's financial engineering probably is what brings it down”

    Avi·3:24

  • “For the broader market, when does the unlock occur? It could be rate rate hikes. Basically, whenever there's a credit problem, whenever there's a borrowing issue, that's when the level's over, and that's when you gotta get out. But, you know, we're nowhere near that.”

    Jonah·0:45
• $BTC - Bitcoin MVRVZ score hard bounced off the buy zone (z-score around 0.25), flashing bullish across multiple markets. Oil collapse from Iran deal is extremely bearish for inflation, supporting the case for lower rates which benefits Bitcoin. However, timing caveat: needs to reach 'disdain' phase (not just current 'apathy') for optimal entry.

  • “This is the Bitcoin MVRVZ score. It hard bounced a couple of times off of this, like, buy zone when the z score is down to, like, point two five ish.”

    Jonah·35:55

  • “We're flashing bullish across all of the underlying indicators across multiple markets now.”

    Jonah·36:41

  • “Oil just nuked from north of 100 to the 80s, maybe the high 70s. I haven't checked today, but that's that. For Bitcoin, MVRVZ went to the bottom.”

    Jonah·36:28

Bearish:

• $BTC - Bitcoin is underperforming due to Michael Saylor's credit problem - the active float in Bitcoin has become Saylor who has credit issues. Bitcoin has lost mind share and become a 'sailor asset'. Market is in apathy mode but needs to reach true disdain before buying, suggesting more downside ahead.

  • “If you look at what's causing the sell off in Bitcoin, the active float in Bitcoin has become Michael Saylor. Michael Saylor has a credit problem. Right? That's basically why Bitcoin is underperforming.”

    Jonah·4:08

  • “The thing the thing the thing about Bitcoin, obviously, that still worries me is just that it's lost mind share. I mean, I'm bullish on the rest of crypto, but Bitcoin has really just become the sailor asset, and I think that's that's just that's just not where I want to put my money.”

    Avi·36:54

  • “Right now, we are in apathy mode. What I want is disdain. I want true disdain for this asset to buy it.”

    Avi·37:10

  • “We're not grave dancing yet. People aren't people aren't grave dancing. I think we we're gonna need Sailor to really talk about how terrible, you know, like, people are gonna really, like, genuinely start talking about Sailor blow ups and and how Bitcoin has totally lost its way”

    Avi·37:31
• $REMX - America First defense contractor thesis may be weakening as Trump potentially takes his foot off the gas on geopolitical issues after mixed results (Venezuela success, tariffs struck down, Iran didn't go well). Less geopolitical conflict ahead could mean less investment in critical rare earth and defense assets.

  • “It's possible that he just takes his foot off the gas when it comes to geopolitical issues, which would mean the theory or the thesis for America first assets might end up weakening. Right? So for example, critical rare the the thesis that I've had for a long time, r e like, REMX. That trade I've had on for almost a year. At this point, do I need to get out of that now?”

    Avi·47:05

  • “We might just see less geo we might just see less conflict in the next two years, especially heading into the midterms, which is gonna drive a lot less investment into these companies that are protecting America's interests. So like USAR, REMX, less so uranium doesn't really have anything to do with this thesis, but I'm thinking, basically, if you're heavily allocated to the America First defense contractor thesis, maybe you need to get out a little bit.”

    Avi·47:36