How To Position During an Oil Price Shock

Bullish:

• $SPY - Jonah is dip buying SPY as he believes the Iran conflict is transient and will resolve within weeks, creating an opportunity to enter at discounted prices.

  • “So SPY is something I'm dip buying right now.”

    Jonah·35:55
• $MU - Jonah sees Micron as a simple way to gain exposure to the computing megatrend, as humanity will spend more on compute going forward.

  • “The megatrend that I see is like humanity is just gonna spend more on compute than before. So I'm looking at ways to gain exposure to that and some of them are discounted right now. The simplest one is Micron stock”

    Jonah·37:20
• $INTC - Avi has been bullish on Intel for a long time and notes it has performed extremely well off the lows.

  • “I think I've been banging the drum on Intel for a long time.”

    Avi·37:39

  • “the way, has performed extremely well off the off the lows.”

    Avi·37:47
• $STRIPE - Jonah believes Stripe is best positioned to capture value from the growth of on-chain payments and stablecoin adoption, comparing it to Amazon's early dominance in e-commerce.

  • “What about Stripe? You can buy that on the private market at a $90,000,000,000 valuation. That company, if you believe that payments that agents will pay agents and that payment volume will via those types of rails will just 10x, Why not just lift some of that?”

    Jonah·40:40

  • “I think Stripe is better positioned to capture that entire value stack than pretty much anybody else, because they kind of own e commerce.”

    Jonah·43:45

  • “I feel like efficient API based payment is like 5% of payment right now. A lot of that will end up being on chain, and Stripe is like 90% of efficient API based on and off chain payment right now for commerce. And that piece of the overall commercial pie is just going to grow.”

    Jonah·44:09
• $BTC - Avi notes Bitcoin's resilience during the war suggests limited selling pressure remains, comparing it to October 2020 when Bitcoin refused to drop on bad news.

  • “Now, basically from the top 125 all the way down here, any piece of bad news is sending Bitcoin down 5%. Like every piece of bad news is flushing people out of the market. Now, if you get a war and Bitcoin can barely go down, the question is who's left to sell?”

    Avi·46:23