How To Position During an Oil Price Shock
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What's up, Jonah?
Yo. We're live.
We are. We are live. It is it is a great day because I I got to see Trump threaten to end civilizations, which is something that I never really thought I would see in the, you know, coming out of the presidential office. Yeah, he's It's the second like a biblical state.
It's the second time he's done this though. Like, I think he threatened to totally destroy North Korea during his first presidency, which I guess if you take that literally, that would be pretty drastic. I think there's, you you have to separate what Trump says versus what he actually does. He is a loud mouth. He loves himself. And he says a lot of crazy stuff. I mean, grab him by the P star SSY was one of his viral moments. This is another one. End civilization. I think he's doing the thing where he comes out with a crazy statement and then ends up settling for something far more normal.
But the thing is this time he doesn't have he doesn't have that much time. That's really the that's really the key issue right now is he keeps giving Us deadlines for Iran to back down. And by giving deadlines, I mean, he's doing what Obama did in Syria in 2014 where he draws this he draws this red line. And if the red line is crossed and nothing happens, then that gives the other side basically all of the power in the world to continue to do whatever the hell they wanna do. And that's that's really the the issue that we find that we find ourselves in right now is that short of short of boots
waiting
because what we have right now is we have contained the downstream effects. If the war ends without much more damage to oil refineries and ends without much more damage to general infrastructure, we're probably gonna be okay. We're probably resuming resuming the bull market. If we continue to see bombardment of oil infrastructure, if we continue to see, like if we hit the power plants in Iran and they come back and they just eliminate Qatari oil fields, that's obviously gonna be really bad for basically what everyone's worried about right now, which is stagflation. This roaring back of inflati
Yeah. I think so too. I mean, I think you've you've phrased it pretty well. Do I I think there are a couple of comments I would add. The first is, does Iran have the capability to take out other sort of regional production assets? No one cares about Gulf refineries, Persian Gulf, Arabian Gulf refineries. It's like, do they have the capacity to take out infrastructure? Can they do what they did in 2019 when they hit Abcake? Can they destroy you said Qatari oil fields. Qatar actually doesn't have a lot of oil. Could they destroy Qatari gas fields? Could they destroy Saudi oil fields? Could they
I think a big part of it is is what you said. It's it's also that we really did think me, you, Trump, it it was gonna look a little bit more like Venezuela. And I think that that came down to a fundamental misunderstanding of the structure of Iran and how long they had been prepping for this moment and how how many people they had in back of let me think about it. You take out if I were to tell you, okay. You've taken out 40 of the top leaders of Iran for of of of any country. That come to you and I say that. I say we took out the top 40 people in Venezuela or the top 40 people in Cuba or the
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