How To Trade Crypto Cycles with Flood

Bullish:

• $BTC - Bitcoin will transition from volatile asset to safe haven like gold, with continued adoption in third world countries and potential nation-state hoarding catalyst.

  • “I think crypto is an inevitability in the sense of stablecoin adoption. Bitcoin adoption still continues to rise in third world countries as a way for them to opt out of their currency and monetary systems. And I think we will see this transition from Bitcoin being this hyper volatile three x levered Nasdaq to more of a safe haven asset or more of a countercyclical positioning for some asset managers very similar to gold”

    Flood·0:00

  • “I am still bullish Bitcoin. I don't think there's a reason to not be bullish Bitcoin other than potentially quantum risks”

    Flood·3:14

  • “Bitcoin snapping back and correcting some of the ratios between QQQ and gold. So outright long Bitcoin should get paid at some point. I don't know when, but that's our bet for this year”

    Flood·52:25
• $STABLES - Stablecoin adoption is inevitable due to superior user experience compared to traditional banking wire transfers.

  • “the third thing is obviously the proliferation and adoption of stablecoins, which also feels inevitable. If anyone's ever tried to make, like, a large bank wire, you know, no matter if you're at JPMorgan private wealth or, I I assume other than if you really own the bank, it's a complete pain in the ass”

    Flood·14:41
• $HYPERLIQUID - Hyperliquid has potential to capture high single digit percentage of global perps market worth $10-20B annually, with market significantly underpricing its revenue potential.

  • “we think that hyper liquid has a chance based on its current growth, to potentially have high double digit, high single digit percentage of the global perps market, that would mean 1 to $2,000,000,000 of revenue. People implicitly are maybe pricing that at 100 or $200,000,000 of revenue”

    Flood·27:00

  • “we still maintain, like, a large Hyperliquid position as we think Hyperliquid has kind of set itself apart from the other competitors”

    Flood·29:38

  • “own things that will in the future proliferate the adoption of perps or be a good segue into it or just outright be perp dominant, like something like Hyperliquid”

    Flood·52:53
• $HOOD - Robinhood will benefit from US perpetual futures adoption and owns the customer relationship with ability to add multiple products.

  • “would you rather own Robinhood, which can service perps, which could service sports betting, which could add banking and gambling and payments, and crypto trading, whatever they want to add and can swap, which Robinhood fundamentally owns the customer relationship”

    Flood·41:00

  • “own things that will in the future proliferate the adoption of perps or be a good segue into it or just outright be perp dominant, like something like Hyperliquid or something like Hood comes to mind”

    Flood·52:53

  • “hood for the average everyday American retail. And you kind of want to own both as they serve two fundamentally different marketplaces, and the market should grow”

    Flood·53:29
• $PERPS - Perpetual futures will dominate options trading due to simplicity, linear payoff, and overwhelming consumer preference shown by Binance data.

  • “we believe perps are an optimal way to transact value. They will replace options trading for retail”

    Flood·19:47

  • “Of those accounts, over 92% have traded perps and only 8% have traded options. It's one of the largest consumer preference studies in history”

    Flood·31:15

  • “I really fundamentally believe that perps will dominate options volume over the next decade”

    Flood·34:28

  • “I think perps are going to continue gaining market share versus options”

    Flood·52:46
• $AI - AI has infinite potential upside from a sci-fi perspective, making it a compelling expected value bet despite high valuations.

  • “I am pretty bullish on AI, candidly. I think you are still gonna continue to get paid to be, like, delusionally bullish on the progressive nature of, like, technology advancement”

    Flood·54:47

  • “the potential upside for AI is infinite. Right? I'm summoning digital god. I'm going to make something that gets me all of the value and all of the money”

    Flood·55:12

  • “what's my risk reward if the returns are infinite? Well, I should always make that bet from an expected value perspective. Like, AI is still pretty good. So I wouldn't fade AI this year”

    Flood·55:46

Bearish:

• $ALTCOINS - Most altcoins are zeros or zombie companies with horrendous returns, though timing shorts is critical after rallies.

  • “when you think about, like, the average Altcoin one year, two year, five year return, it's horrendous”

    Flood·13:42

  • “I think a lot of them are zeros. They're or zombie companies or completely dead, just sort of minding the shop and, you know, grifting the treasury”

    Flood·13:48

  • “what the majority of tokens have been over the last five years have just been, like, slightly innovative or not even innovative ways to try and scam retail”

    Flood·16:03
• $OPTIONS - Options volume will be cannibalized by perpetual futures as retail prefers simpler, linear payoff instruments.

  • “retail for now in The US is trading options, but I think if you give them the opportunity to trade a PERP, though, they'd much rather trade a perp”

    Flood·32:18

  • “Options are segmented segmented by strike, by duration, and by contract. Right? There's a few different contracts for S and P like exposure. And this fragments liquidity, this gives market makers more edge because they can charge bigger spreads”

    Flood·33:37