The Market Can't Make Up Its Mind

Bullish

• $BTC— Bitcoin presents a favorable short-term risk-reward setup as memory stocks sell off while Bitcoin holds steady, potentially bringing new buyers into the crypto market. Sellers appear exhausted at current levels (58-65k range) with target of 75-80k.

  • “Right now, there is actually a reasonable risk reward setup where you can sort of buy Bitcoin here at 65, put it below 60 if we get back down there, and aim for 80, 82, like where we talked that last time, basically try to play a range.”

    Avi·30:21Hear it

  • “But if memory stocks are going down and Bitcoin is going up, that's a new set of buyers that can come into the Bitcoin market. It's the people that are cashing out of memory and the people that are looking for somewhere to place their capital and they might go to Bitcoin. And so that's kind of what's happening right now.”

    Avi·31:29Hear it

  • “Michael Saylor specifically seems to have shored up his balance sheet right now and doesn't need to sell at these prices right here, right now. He doesn't need to. He he sold his stock. He sold his Bitcoin. He's built reserves.”

    Avi·28:10Hear it

  • “I think kind of everyone that's a long term allocator to Bitcoin that has a five to ten year time horizon, it's like we've saturated that market. That used to not be true. Three years ago, that wasn't true because that was pre Trump. And people were still, quote unquote, scared of Bitcoin.”

    Avi·29:07Hear it
• $ETH— Ethereum is positioned as a better expression of the current crypto trade than Bitcoin due to developments with Robinhood chain and other initiatives using Ethereum security as the foundation.

  • “I think that Ethereum is actually a great expression for the trade right now, because of what's happening with Robinhood chain and our return and all that using Ethereum security as the bottom line.”

    Avi·32:31Hear it
• $HYPE— Hyperliquid identified as a better expression of the crypto bounce trade than Bitcoin as memory stocks sell off and capital potentially rotates into crypto.

  • “Do I think that Bitcoin is the best expression for that trade? No. I think that Hyperliquid is probably a better expression for the trade.”

    Avi·32:21Hear it
• $HOOD— Robinhood viewed as a strong expression of the crypto trade and positioned to benefit from tokenization trends regardless of Clarity Act outcome.

  • “I think that Robinhood is probably better expression for the trade.”

    Avi·32:28Hear it

  • “Robinhood's gonna move forward with some of this stuff regardless of Clarity or not. And Uniswap is integrated with Robinhood. So post Clarity, actually, maybe Uniswap's supposed to go up because they're gonna move forward on their plans anyway.”

    Avi·48:06Hear it
• $ZEC— Zcash positioned as the best privacy-focused crypto asset and 'Swiss bank account in your pocket', with potential to reach $5,000 in next ten years once shielded pool supply concerns are resolved.

  • “Maybe lighter is a really good expression of the trade. It's like these sort of Zcash especially is a phenomenal expression of the trade because it's it's performing really well already. It's it's doing well and so it has that momentum factor to it where people where people might come in.”

    Avi·32:40Hear it

  • “z z cash, I think, is probably a better expression of the privacy aspect of it, obviously, because prior to Bitcoin got deanonymized a long time ago. And, well, a big part of what Bitcoin used to be is not only portability, but it was a Swiss bank account in your pocket, And Zcash is the only thing that fills that now.”

    Avi·54:05Hear it

  • “I think Zcash could be that. The only issue is that we gotta drain the shielded pool to make sure that there's not an infinite amount of supply in there because of the bug. But once we do that, I think Zcash could easily hit 4 figures. I think we could see $5,000 Zcash in the next ten years.”

    Avi·53:28Hear it
• $STABLES— Stablecoins and tokenization expected to grow regardless of Clarity Act outcome, with major institutions finding ways to issue products and move forward with plans.

  • “Now if the Clarity Act passes, that's obviously gonna be very, very, very bullish for stablecoins specifically, and it's gonna be bullish for DeFi.”

    Avi·46:35Hear it

  • “I also think that that's not necessarily the the the worst thing in the world because kind of this token this tokenization stuff is moving forward sort of no matter what. The big institutions will find a way to issue stablecoins. They're gonna find a way to issue products with or without clarity.”

    Avi·46:47Hear it
• $DRAM— DRAM and memory stocks presenting potential bounce opportunity after significant selloff, though some additional unwinding may occur first.

  • “I think that you should be buying Bitcoin here as, like, a short term kind of bounce. Although, the only thing that I'm a little nervous about is that kind of wanna buy memory too. Like, that's a that's a bounce, but I think that I think that we might be able to have a little bit more of an unwind from memory.”

    Avi·39:23Hear it

Bearish

• $INTC— Intel cited as example of how fundamentals don't matter in current market environment - stock was 'cheap' at $140 but still fell 40% to $100, demonstrating flows trump fundamentals.

  • “You look at memory stocks, Intel at one forty was quote, unquote cheap according to fundamentals. It still went down 40%. It's trading at a 100 today. It's even cheaper today. I mean, who knows if people are gonna step in and buy it?”

    Avi·26:45Hear it
• $HFT— Short-term trading and market making alpha has been squeezed/commoditized according to Ken Griffin, with most opportunities already extracted from these strategies.

  • “Ken Griffin comes out and says, you know, we're we're actually seeing that a ton of the alpha in short term trading has been juiced. A ton of the alpha in market making has been juiced. This is becoming almost commoditized in a way.”

    Avi·23:35Hear it
• $MARKETMAKING— Market making opportunities have become commoditized with alpha extraction largely complete, forcing firms like Citadel to look for new sources of returns.

  • “Ken Griffin comes out and says, you know, we're we're actually seeing that a ton of the alpha in short term trading has been juiced. A ton of the alpha in market making has been juiced. This is becoming almost commoditized in a way.”

    Avi·23:35Hear it

  • “So a lot of that alpha has already been extracted. And he's kind of looking for what's next. Like, where where is the next piece of the market that you can go take and really, you know, get return from?”

    Avi·23:52Hear it

Not investment advice.