When Do We Buy, Global M2, Does Crypto Need A Catalyst, & Owning Your L’s
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This little bounce here is what I don't love. You had pretty substantial bounce off of the lows, almost 20%, and that didn't really catalyze any upwards momentum, which just tells me that right now people are sort of tapped out.
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Oh, what's up, Jonah? How are we doing?
Hey, man. We've been better.
Yeah. How are we doing? I mean, I'm doing I'm doing I'm doing okay. Yeah. Market is not happy right now. I think that's for sure. Yeah. Which is a little unfortunate.
I've been worried about this. I mean, just to recap what I've said a lot, you know, I'm obviously long and hurting. So this isn't me trying to pretend that I'm like net short crypto here. I've just been scared of a volatile December for some time. I still have capital to deploy so you know there is the big question of when do you step in and actually buy something. But usually in December in markets, traders who are having a bad who had a bad year don't have bullets to invest and that usually creates some some volatility because you don't have people stepping in to buy dips. Traders who have h
100%. I mean, basically, basically nobody's Nobody's taking risk. The The the the issue right now that I see is basically what we identified in the last podcast where if you go back and just to like go through the entire timeline of how my thoughts have evolved on this, is that two weeks ago at the December, I was talking about tax loss harvesting. And the fact that if crypto and at that point, Bitcoin was about flat on the year. A lot of other alts were down, but Bitcoin was about flat on the year. And my thesis was, okay, we've sold off, we hit 80 ks. That was when we would hit 80 ks. We sol
unfortunately. No, it pretty tired, doesn't it?
You can see here, we've sort of, we're in on the weekly chart, sort of in an upwards trend for an extended I mean, you can make this a little bit more basically for the last two years, you've been in an upwards trend respecting this trend line. Every time we pulled back about 25% to 30% off the tops, that was 32%, you would get some sort of bounce. Unfortunately, on this one, we sold off about 36%. And this little bounce here is what I don't love. Had a pretty substantial bounce off of the lows, almost 20%, And that didn't really catalyze any upwards momentum, which just tells me that right no
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