Lyn Alden: How to Survive The Gradual Print Era — Fed Chair Warsh, Gold & Bitcoin
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I've been terming this the gradual print, which is to say that we are away from fed balance sheet reduction. We've shifted toward gradual fed balance sheet increases. I tend to take the under on those that are calls calling for major printing this year or next. There are scenarios where it could happen, but those aren't in my base case. And with this new nominee nominee, I have to look at the other side of the scenario, which is, you know, what are scenarios that could reduce the balance sheet because we have a new potentially new leadership in place.
Lin Alden, it's so great to have you back on bank list during these, chaotic times. I actually wanna start with a tweet that my co host David Hoffman said really spoke to his heart. We talked about this last week. Okay. Here here it is. It's a tweet from somebody, online. We'll include it. Yeah. Who's this from, David?
I just saw it
on Twitter.
Hungry Ponds x.
Hungry Ponds
x. It reflects the sentiment we're all feeling. I honestly have no idea if we are close to a crash, a melt up, World War three, an industrial revolution, a mother of all short squeezes, a depression, a recession, or aliens. But it sure feels like all of them all at once. Lynn Alden, what is happening in the world? And maybe that's a little too broad of a question. What in all of this noise and chaos should investors be paying the most attention to right now?
Good set of questions. I mean, I I I think we are basically in the fourth turning, which I'm not the first person to say that. But the way I I break that up that a little differently because I look at things a little bit more quantitatively, which is to say we're on the rough side of the long term debt cycle. And with a long term debt cycle tends to come other things along with it, which is why I always feel like everything's happening all at once. So sovereign debt crises tend to lead to more war, and war also can lead to sovereign debt crises. So these things kind of feed off each other. It
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