The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks

The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks | Michael Howell – Bankless

Bullish:

$BTC - Bitcoin serves as a monetary inflation hedge with positive long-term correlation to gold, positioned well for the current liquidity environment
$GOLD - Gold projected to reach $10,000/oz by mid-2030s based on federal debt relationship and China's accumulation strategy
$COMMODITIES - Commodities positioned to perform well in the late-cycle speculation phase as liquidity shifts to the real economy
$ENERGY - Energy commodities expected to perform well during the calm to speculation phase of the current cycle
$STABLES - Stablecoins represent a strategic innovation for global investors to access dollar exposure amid re-dollarization trends
$DEFENSE - Defense stocks positioned to benefit from government spending shifts toward the real economy

Bearish:

$EQUITIES - Fed policy conducive to range-bound rather than bull market conditions as liquidity shifts from Wall Street to Main Street
$TECH - Technology sector typically leads early cycle but underperforms in late-cycle speculation phase, suggesting reduction of extreme positions
$FINANCIALS - Financial sector performs best mid-cycle through calm phase, implying underperformance as market moves into speculation/turbulence