Was That the Top? Bitcoin, ETH, & Q4 Setup | Michael Nadeau's DeFi Report #6
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Bankless Nation, we have a crypto fundamentals episode for you today. I've got Michael Nato on today's episode. We're gonna talk about the big question that's in my mind, your mind, Mike, I think in a lot of crypto investors' mind. Is the top in? Is the top in is the question. We got this pullback in September, and it didn't feel good. I know September is downtember, but still, it's, like, not fun to get that kind of a pullback. Bitcoin has seemed stuck in the 100 and tens for the longest time. Momentum seems to be slowing with some of our majors. We had this altcoin rally, and it kinda petere
Yeah. No. Thanks for having me, Ryan. I think sentiment is I think people are a little nervous going into this kind of recent sell off. It seems like there's a lot of people out there that are sort of looking looking for the top, which typically doesn't coincide with tops. But I do see a lot of sort of people a little antsy out there. So, hopefully, we can kinda go through some data. Hopefully, maybe put some people at ease as we move through the episode today.
That's what you and I do, Mike, on these monthly episodes. So as a reminder for folks that are new to this, Mike and I put out a crypto fundamentals episode where we look at a lot of the on chain data to guide analysis. It could be a particular project. Oftentimes, it's just where we are in the cycle. And today, we're gonna talk about the big question, is the top in, or do we still have some more time? Alright, Mike. As we're looking at the prices right now, this is we're recording this on September 29, so it's Monday. Had kind of a a bad Friday, and then a not great weekend. We have had some
Yeah. So maybe a good just to, yeah, start there and kinda quick recap of sort of what's played out, I think, over over the summer. You know, we really saw the the rotation into ETH, and we've seen Bitcoin's dominance. So this is the Bitcoin dominance chart here just showing really that that moving down from 65% or so down to the 57% range. As that played out, we saw big rotation into ETH in sort of like a kind of an ETH season, I think I think we can call it, and sort of this is sort of the other side of that showing, the ETH BTC, ratio rising as Bitcoin dominance fell. And and sort of as thi
So we'll talk about some more metrics that maybe support some of your conclusions, but the the answer to the question is the top end. What's your answer to that question?
I say no. I don't I don't see I don't see that. I certainly pay attention to what other people are saying. I always wanna, like, understand, you know, where blind spots could potentially be. But, you know, I just I don't see anything that makes me nervous that that the the top is actually is actually in. There's some there's certainly some data we could look at in terms of, like, what, you know, long term holders are doing and and Yeah.
Before we get there, actually, Mike, I I wanna ask you a question. So you called this a mini alt season, the thing that un unfolded over the summer months. Right? So starting maybe June and July, and that was led by Ether. And then it kind of, in more recent weeks, has switched to other assets aside from Ether as Ether kind of bounced off its all time high and and took a rest itself. And Bitcoin has been pretty much flat, and so that caused Bitcoin dominance to drop from 65% to 57%. So I guess when you say mini alt season, it did feel like a mini alt season compared to the big alt seasons of t
Yeah. So when we in the prior two cycles, when when Bitcoin has topped, its dominance has been closer to 40%. So you can see
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