Where is ETH in the cycle? | Michael Nadeau
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Bankless nation, today we're gonna check-in on Ether the asset. Where is ETH in the cycle? My favorite cycle investor, Michael Nato from the DeFi report is on the podcast today. We do these episodes on the bankless feed every month. And this one, I asked Mike to prepare a little information for the ETH holders among us. Mike and I have talked a lot about fair market value metrics for Bitcoin, the weekly moving averages, MVRV, all of the metrics. We've looked at many charts about Bitcoin. But ETH has its own cycle that is related to the broader crypto cycle, yet also independent of Bitcoin. So
Hey, Ryan. Yeah. Great great to be here, and that's a great question, I think, to to lead in here. I would say that the way I think of this is I I think of Bitcoin as sort of a thing that we wanna anchor portfolio in. We've had periods where we were more bullish on ETH, less bullish on ETH. We still own some ETH currently in our portfolio. And, you know, one of the things that I like about the cyclicality of the crypto markets and just kind of, like, the the sort of four year nature of these markets is that we get a chance to kind of, like, underwrite our thesis for for Bitcoin, for ETH, for o
Alright. So Eth has an opportunity to prove itself to Mike this cycle in order for him to re underwrite whether it should be included in the DeFi report portfolio. Before we get into this episode, wanna thank our friends and sponsors over at Galaxy. This one is for the institutional capital listening, whether you are looking at the future of finance or the backbone of the next industrial revolution, that, of course, is AI. Galaxy is the name you need to know. They're a global leader, not just in crypto and digital assets, but also AI data infrastructure. You know the ticker. They are GLXY. The
Yeah. I think this is the the the big question, and that's a very interesting kind of just framing of just kind of those, you know, diminishing returns over the last last three cycles. Maybe if you just zoom out to, like, the max on that chart, right, we kind of look at this a little bit from a broader perspective. And and what you can see here is rising sort of, you know, base, which is a which is a good sign and I think a healthy chart. You can see these massive moves that we made in the first two cycles. And and then, you know, in this last cycle, we've mostly just actually sort of traded w
So then is your explanation basically that the the road map decisions that Ethereum made essentially caused ETH price to skip a cycle? Now whether the next cycle will be, you know, back to being more bullish again or or not, whether it will continue to underperform and and be anemic relative to previous cycles, maybe you have to underwrite that on your own. But this cycle, the 2025 cycle, was it a case of just l twos not scaling in the way that Ethereum thought, the fees not accruing back to Ether the asset, the market looking at the l two road map and saying, okay. This might be okay for indi
I can I can see that? Yes. I I I absolutely can. And, like, you know, when you know, I was bullish on this l two road map when this was really starting to come out. So if you go back to, like, 2022, 2023 period, this is when optimism, you know, was was coming out, rolling out. That was an exciting project at the time. I know Bankless had a lot of, like, coverage on that at the time. Arbitrum came out thereafter. Both of these lost tokens that that actually, like, performed decently well, actually, in in a bear market. So there was excitement around the l twos, and I think the vision that we al
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