Why Recessions Are Dead & How to Invest in The Debasement Era | Macro Investor Vincent Deluard

Why Recessions Are Dead & How to Invest in The Debasement Era | Macro Investor Vincent Deluard – Bankless

Mentioned

Bullish

BREAKEVENS— Breakevens offer a steady way to profit from persistent inflation with positive carry and negative correlation to stocks, returning about 6% annually since 2020 - Vincent calls it 'the new bond'
CHINA— Vincent favors Chinese equities over consensus favorite India, citing cheap valuations, policy shifts, and margin expansion potential - China has been the best performing major stock market this year
GLD— Vincent maintains strong conviction in gold despite all-time highs, seeing it in early innings with central bank buying as ongoing support and part of the debasement trade, though acknowledges potential 20% short-term drop
BRAZIL— Vincent sees opportunity in Brazil as 10% real rates normalize, which would boost margins significantly - fits his weak dollar thesis for emerging markets
GDX— Vincent suggests rotating from gold into gold miners as they remain profitable even if gold corrects 20%, offering leveraged exposure to his gold thesis

Bearish

TLT— Vincent strongly believes long-duration government bonds are the worst asset in a fiscal dominance era with persistent inflation, seeing them as victims of financial repression
DXY— Vincent strongly believes the dollar will weaken as fiscal dominance continues, creating a self-reinforcing cycle benefiting emerging markets - sees this in very early innings
INDIA— Vincent believes India is overvalued at twice EM average and will lose its energy arbitrage from discounted Russian oil - a contrarian call against consensus bullishness

Not investment advice.