Why Recessions Are Dead & How to Invest in The Debasement Era | Macro Investor Vincent Deluard
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You think of recession as a 2009 like event where we'll see you know sub 1% inflation print, massive job losses, 10% unemployment rate, really don't think it's going to happen, right? We had this kind of hyperactive policy making where where the Fed cuts just because inflation might slow below the 2% target in twelve months based on some, you know, number that, you know, they made up.
Welcome to Bankless, where we explore the frontier of Internet money and Internet finance. It's just me today. David's out, so I'm here to help you become more bankless. I came into this episode with, I think, one question. What is the ultimate portfolio for the debasement era aside from crypto, of course? Vincent Deloitte is a macro investor. He's the guest today. He advises the big, big money, the sovereign wealth funds, the pension funds on what to buy and how to weather these storms. I think he shares a similar thesis to many of us in crypto, but he comes to a different conclusion on what
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Bankless nation Vincent Deloart is a macro strategist, and he's an investor over at Stonex Group. Vincent, welcome to Bankless.
Very happy to be here.
So, Vincent, you know what we're trying to do over here is we're trying to make sense of the next ten years and investing in life in general. And I always enjoy picking the brains of somebody who is studied in macro because I feel like the the discipline of macro causes you to look at this cross section of all of the different areas from geopolitical to investing to monetary policy. And macro guys always give me the most comprehensive, interesting picture of the world. So that's why you're invited on this episode. We're we're hopeful you can help us out with that.
Oh, you you just raised the bar. I mean, all I can say is I'm going to try because that's yeah, indeed that is the job, especially in my case because I work a lot with with pension funds. And, you know, they often deride it as a slow money, right? The exciting guy, the guys who make a lot of commissions are typically the the parch ups, not not not the pension funds, but for the pension funds. Yeah. It is questions such as, you know, in the next ten years, what is the expected rate and return on equities? What is the expected correlation between stocks and bonds? And then even a small a small n
It's very
Right? But like, if you give me five, ten years, like, yeah, I think it it it gets clearer and clearer because these trends have been building on, I would argue, since early twenty twenties. I mean, much of the themes that people know me for on podcasts, things like like secular inflation, things things like the end of recession and and things like fiscal dominance, really the the seeds were planted, I would argue, even before COVID, and and they've been growing very steadily. And and yeah.
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