Will Crypto Peak in 2025 or 2026? Onchain Data Signals | Michael Nadeau’s DeFi Report #5
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Alright, Bankless Nation. The question today is how will the rest of the crypto cycle play out? Are we gonna top in 2025? That would be a classic four year cycle. Crypto has had many of those. Or will we have a longer cycle? Maybe a top in 2026 and beyond, something a little bit different. I'm here with Michael Nato of the DeFi Report, and this is an episode we do on a monthly basis. Usually comes out the last Tuesday of the month. It's more of a crypto fundamentals episode where we look at a lot of the data, some of on chain data in particular, and paint the story of where we are in the crypt
Doing great. Thanks for having me, Ryan.
Let's talk about the market right now. So first, ETH has had a great three months or so, and including an all time high late last week. So it ticked that all time high number. I hadn't seen that in almost four years. It was like three years and seven or eight months, but who's counting? Now it is trading down, so maybe there's some resistance at the all time high, at least at the time of recording. Bitcoin has been okay, but it's had a sluggish three months or so. It is down a reasonable amount from its all time high. Feels like Altcoin still haven't caught a bid other than Ether, but maybe SO
Yeah. So last week was was a big, big week, big catalyst with with with Powell speaking at Jackson Hole last week. Markets were pricing two cuts, you know, going into that speech, but I think there was a lot of, like, sort of expectations of of him being a little bit hawkish. And so I think the market was actually expecting maybe a sell off as he was speaking last week, and and we got the opposite. We got, like, a really exuberant market. I think ETH was up 15% on last Friday. Yeah. And so a pretty big move. And we've now, you know, sort of got both of those those two rate hikes are priced int
do our best to answer that question in today's episode. I I wanna hear a bit more from you about Powell's speech last week and how that impacts things. Also, there's a question. You wrote this great post about how many assets, crypto assets, you should hold in your portfolio. I wanna get your take and maybe compare notes with some of the things that that I've been doing and see if you think what you think makes sense. We can also talk about some high beta plays, maybe Zora, all of that, and more. We gotta thank today's sponsor, of course. So Bit Digital, the ticker is BTBT, is a publicly trade
Yeah. This this chart is just showing us that Bitcoin is historically quite correlated with global liquidity. This is looking at global liquidity in terms of all the central banks out there, things that are happening with the treasury with you know, right now, we have the treasury is refilling the treasury general account, which is sort of a checking account for them. It's factoring in basically everything in terms of the global liquidity out there, and Bitcoin is extremely correlated to this. The we are continue to grow in terms of global liquidity, so no major, you know, headwinds, I think,
So the projection of the global liquidity line that's actually depicted in orange on this chart is that it continues to go up kind of incrementally, or is there a step function change? I know we've got things like the big beautiful bill, some fiscal dominance in The US and other countries, but is your base expectation that global liquidity will continue to expand for the next at least twelve to eighteen months?
That is that's what I'm looking at right now. What's interesting here is I think there is a lot of sentiment or a lot of people have this view tha
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