Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Episode publishedPodcast: BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and...BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley
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Elon said he thinks that every cognitive task that can be done by a human will be able to be done by an AI within 3 to 4 years. Yeah. If you believe that to be true, the value of all that human labor that you're replacing is measured in 1,000,000,000,000.
Good to see you, Brett. Happy New Year. Happy
New Year. I have on a you probably can't tell, Bill. I have on a blue shirt today, not a black shirt. I have on my green pants a little Notre Dame spirit for the big Notre Dame game tonight. I know you have a big Texas game coming on.
Yeah. That's, tomorrow in Dallas. Yeah. So we'll have to see if both those teams could win in advance. That'd be pretty spectacular.
You and I were were talking about some of this insanity going on in LA, and I know we we both have a friend who's lost a house and, you know, there's a lot of this debate going on online whether or not any of the policies that we've had are proximate causes, at least to the severity of the thing that's going on. And And one of the things that I know you and I both really appreciate is, you know, as we're entering 2025, you know, just the opportunity, I feel like the conversation going on online, the debate going on online is more robust than it's been, and I think it rubs a lot of people the w
Yeah. And I I I totally agree with you. And I've I have this framework in my head that I think about in relation to these types of situations, which is, you know, a lot of people I think evaluate politicians and policies based on what they think the intent of the decision was. And they fail to follow-up and then see if the output or the outcome is identical to what they thought the original intent was. And I think all too often, the original intent of something may have sounded good or or you might be voting for someone because you agree with their point of view. But if the policy, fails to ac
For sure. For sure.
Well, I thought we could do something, unique and different, if you're up for it, related to this time of year. So, obviously, large investment funds like yourself, are typically operating on a calendar cycle. Sometimes, you you know, the reporting is certainly looked at annually and sometimes even some of the the, fees and whatnot are calculated on an annual basis, and so I'm sure that creates a annual cycle for you. And as you've been going through that process, I thought it'd be really cool to, you know, expose the listeners to both both the analysis that you're going on now, but but a wind
No no doubt about it. And, you know, we we've been, I I think, having this conversation for 20 years, but, you know, half of our business, the venture capital part of our business has a much, you know, longer cycle time. What informs how we think about the annual cadence of our public market positioning, which is the other half of our business, is a lot of times these big trends that, you know, we're having debates on. We ended last year in this great conversation with Dylan, right, about this tension or debate in the world about how much compute the world needs, all the investment going on, e
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