EP 36 — Beyond Four-Year Market Cycles with Will Clemente
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Welcome to the Deco podcast, where we bring you stories from founders and investors in Web three. Before we get started, this is not a financial or legal advice. It's just a conversation about things we find interesting in Web three. Views expressed are our own personal opinions. The co members or guests appearing on the show may have positions on assets they talk about. Alright. Welcome to another episode. Today we have with us Will Clemente. Now Will is Sambaat. I've been following Carlos for how many years now. I got curious about his account from the Bitcoin related analysis, on chain anal
man. Thanks so much for the great intro. That might be the best intro I've ever gotten. It's great to be here. I know that at one point we had to delay this and I'm glad we were finally able to hop on and looking forward to jamming with you,
man. Awesome. Fantastic. Let's start from the beginning. Right? I want to understand where your interest in trading and investing comes from. Is that a family thing? Is that because you were surrounded by such people? Just walk us through the interest.
Yeah. Sure. I think I always enjoyed, you know, whatever I was doing, I always like to go all the way in and do it. You know, going back to silly things like in middle school, I, you know, traded sneakers, and I'd walk around school with, like, one notebook in my book bag and, like, a bunch of sneakers and, like, shoes tied up on the straps of my book bags, trying to, you know, make deals with people in school and stuff. I never really you know, I kinda bounced back and forth, you know, just typical stuff, you know, but almost every sport when I was younger and never really had, like, a, you k
Where does starting and selling research falls into all of this?
Yeah. So I had kinda built up a pretty large Twitter account throughout the twenty twenty to twenty twenty two period. Like you said at the beginning, you know, I think a lot of people initially knew me because, you know, I kinda just started off just talking about Bitcoin as an investment opportunity. Over time, you know, shifted kind of towards thinking about the markets, like, a little more tactically than just high level, like, Bitcoin's gonna go up over the next twenty years type of thing. At the time, I found a lot of the on chain stuff very interesting because it was very unique to Bitc
Awesome. I think we are gonna talk about we wanna talk about markets, so let's just switch gears and let's talk about markets. Alright? So back in COVID, interest rates are near zero or zero. I mean, across the board, like, almost all entire board throughout. Cost of capital and pretty low, pretty cheap. And, you know, that drives liquidity and BTC moves forward and goes to whatever. Right? $6,970,000, whatever that times high was. Right? From the bottom tick of COVID. So definitely the cost of capital being low has helped risk assets like Bitcoin. Right? And that kind of nicely coincided with
Definitely. I think you touched on a lot of really good stuff there. I think, you know, I got pretty publicly cautious, you know, a couple weeks ago around 93 to 95 k. But, really, as we started to move towards the bottom of the range around, you know, 93 k ish, thought process there was basically the following, and, you know, this is definitely not fully, you know, my own originated thoughts, but this has been kind of my view as well. Over the last couple years, you know, obviously, fiscal's been a huge driver of the market. You know, just tremendous amount of government spending and kind of
Yeah. Can you just clarify fiscal and monet
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