Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away

Bullish:

• $AIEDU - AI will fundamentally transform education delivery through personalized tutoring and efficient learning ramps, making education both more useful pre-AGI and more engaging post-AGI

  • “I do think education will pretty fundamentally change with AIs on the side... I want to figure out how to build these frontier these ramps very efficiently so that people are never stuck.”

    Andrej·1:58:07

  • “Pre AGI education is useful. Post AGI education is fun.”

    Andrej·2:08:39
• $CODINGAI - Coding is the perfect first application for LLMs and agents due to its text-based nature and existing infrastructure for automation

  • “I do believe coding is, like, the perfect first thing for for a for these LLMs... And agents. And that's because coding has always fundamentally worked around text.”

    Andrej·1:14:14
• $CALLAI - Call centers have ideal properties for near-term AI automation due to their simple, repetitive, and similar task sequences

  • “call center employees have a number of simplifying properties with respect to what's automatable today. Their jobs are pretty simple. It's a sequence of tasks, and every task looks similar.”

    Andrej·1:11:03
• $SEMI - Semiconductor demand will absorb current infrastructure buildout as compute requirements continue to grow

  • “I don't actually know that there's overbuilding. I think that there's gonna be we're gonna be able to gobble up what, in my understanding, is being built.”

    Andrej·1:55:25
• $TSLA - Tesla's self-driving approach is more scalable than competitors despite current market perceptions

  • “I do think Tesla is taking the more scalable strategy, it's gonna look a lot more like... I think this will have to still play out and hasn't.”

    Andrej·1:50:36

Bearish:

• $AGITIMELINE - AGI timeline predictions are overhyped and driven by fundraising rather than technical reality, with no historical precedent for discrete intelligence explosions

  • “I'm only sounding pessimistic because when I go on my Twitter timeline, I see all this stuff that makes no sense to me... I think there's a lot of reasons for why that exists, and I think a lot of it is, I think, honestly, just fundraising.”

    Andrej·1:54:21

  • “I still think that you're presupposing some discrete jump that I think has basically no historical precedent that I can't find in any of the statistics, and that I think probably won't happen.”

    Andrej·1:29:53
• $AGENTS - AI agent development will take much longer than market expects, with the industry making overpredictions about near-term capabilities

  • “I feel like there's some over predictions going on in the industry. And in my mind, this is really a lot more accurately described as the Decade of Agents.”

    Andrej·0:06
• $WAYMO - Waymo's business model is uneconomical with very few cars deployed due to fundamental economic challenges

  • “So even Waymo and so on has very few cars, and they're doing that roughly speaking because they're not economical... they had to pull back future, but they had had to make it uneconomical.”

    Andrej·1:49:56
• $CODEAGENT - Production-grade coding agents face significant challenges due to safety and reliability requirements that current systems cannot meet

  • “I think for a lot of vibe coding, it doesn't. But I think if you're writing actual production grade code, I think that property should exist. Because any kind of mistake actually leads to a security vulnerability or something like that.”

    Andrej·1:45:26
• $SLIDEAI - Presentation and slide automation is much harder than text-based AI due to lack of prebuilt infrastructure and visual complexity

  • “I saw a company doing slides. That's much, much harder. And the reason it's much, much harder is because slides are not text... slides don't have this prebuilt infrastructure.”

    Andrej·1:15:39
• $RADAI - Radiology AI predictions have proven wrong with radiologists remaining alive, well, and growing despite automation predictions

  • “Jeff Hinton's prediction that radiologists would not be a job anymore, and this turned out to be very wrong in a bunch of ways. Right? So radiologists are alive and well and growing”

    Andrej·1:11:03