China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? – Casey Handmer
Episode publishedPodcast: Dwarkesh PodcastDwarkesh Podcast
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Today, I'm interviewing Casey Hanmer. Casey has worked on a bunch of cool things. Caltech PhD on some gravitational wave black hole gimmick stuff, then Hyperloop, then the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at NASA, and now he is founder and CEO of Terraform Industries. Casey, welcome.
Thank you. It's great to be here finally.
Big, very short question I'm interested in. To the extent that AI just ends up being this big industrial race, who can build the most solar panels, who can build the most batteries, who can build the most GPUs and, transmission lines and transformers and etcetera etcetera, this is not what The US is known for at least in recent decades. This is exactly what China is known for and right where they have like 20 x the amount of yearly solar manufacturing The US has. Yep. Obviously, have export controls right now, but over time, SMIC will catch up to TSMC's leading edge. So what is a story exactly
Do you think that China is better at capital allocation than The United States? Do you think the Chinese business environment is better for business than in The United States?
I I think you made these first principles argument about these other industries where they're killing it, but, like, doesn't seem to have hampered BYD.
Well, people say, well, look. They're so much better at building high speed trains than The United States.
Right.
Right. I would never, like, hold up a flag saying I'm really good at building high speed trains. Like, that is just a sign that you're really bad at capital allocation. Like, why would you devote in 2025 so much industrial effort and money?
Right? They're they're devoting a lot to solar overcapacity, which in your opinion is the key to future industrial growth.
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