Dylan Patel & Jon (Asianometry) – How the Semiconductor Industry Works

Bullish:

• $NVDA - NVIDIA is expected to consistently deliver more than 2x performance per dollar in each generation, indicating strong growth potential in the AI chip market.

  • “NVIDIA gen to gen to gen will do more than 2 x performance per dollar. I think that's very clear.”

    Dylan·1:02:05
• $SEMI - The semiconductor industry presents significant opportunities for innovation and growth, particularly in AI-related applications, with potential for breakthrough developments across multiple layers of the manufacturing process.

  • “I think there's, like, tremendous opportunity to, bring breakthrough innovation simply because there is so many, like, layers where things are unoptimized.”

    Dylan·57:02

  • “There is more opportunity to today than any other time in human history in my view.”

    Dylan·2:08:01
• $TSM - TSMC is well-positioned to meet the increasing demand for advanced chips, particularly for AI applications, in the coming years.

  • “TSMC needs to act accordingly, and the amount of silicon that gets delivered needs to be there. So 25, 26, TSMC is, like, definitely there.”

    Dylan·1:32:01
• $DATACTR - Data centers are identified as a more immediate constraint for AI scaling compared to chip supply, suggesting potential growth opportunities in this sector.

  • “Chips in the near term, right, next year, for example, are less of a constraint than data centers.”

    Dylan·1:33:04
• $PWRGRID - Localized power delivery infrastructure for AI data centers presents potential investment opportunities due to the challenges in power distribution.

  • “Power is not that crazy on a, like, glow on a national basis. On a localized basis, it is because it's about the delivery of it.”

    Dylan·1:34:05
• $INDUS - Global industrial bases are expected to revitalize rapidly to meet AI infrastructure demands, presenting growth opportunities across various industrial sectors.

  • “The US industrial base as well as the Japanese as well as, like, you know, all across the world can get revitalized much faster than people realize.”

    Dylan·1:35:02
• $AI - Companies must invest heavily in AI or risk being left behind, suggesting significant growth potential in the AI sector across various industries.

  • “This is Pascal's wager. Right? This is a matrix of, like, do you believe in God? Yes or no? If you believe in God, yes or no, like, hell or heaven. Right? So if if you believe in God and God's real and you go to heaven, that's great. That's fine. Whatever. If you don't believe in God and God is real, then you're going to hell.”

    Dylan·1:40:03
• $MSFT - Microsoft's significant investments in AI, particularly through partnerships like OpenAI, position the company for strong future growth in the AI sector.

  • “Today, Microsoft is taking on immense credit risk. Right? Like, they've signed these deals with all these companies to do this stuff, but Microsoft doesn't have I mean, they could pay for it. Right? Micro Life could pay for it on the current time scale.”

    Dylan·1:37:02
• $OPENAI - OpenAI is expected to deliver improved AI models and successfully raise significant capital, indicating strong growth potential.

  • “OpenAI has to deliver. They have to make the next model. Right? That's way better, and they also have to raise the money, and I think they will.”

    Dylan·1:37:02
• $MEMORY - Memory technology is seen as a critical area for innovation in AI hardware, given the need for immense amounts of memory in AI applications.

  • “I think I'd work in memory. Yeah. Something in memory. Because I think, like, if you if this concept is, like, there, like, you have to hold immense amounts of memory”

    Jon·2:06:03

Bearish:

• $AI - There's uncertainty about the timely delivery of advanced AI models like GPT-5, suggesting potential overvaluation or delays in AI development.

  • “GPT 5 is not here. It's late. We don't know.”

    Jon·1:44:05