Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

Bullish:

• $BTC - Gwern's personal success with early Bitcoin investments suggests long-term potential and value appreciation of the cryptocurrency.

  • “I got lucky with having some early Bitcoins, and made enough to write for a long time, but not forever.”

    Gwern·1:20:37
• $HC - Gwern expresses excitement about the unexpected broad effects of GLP weight loss drugs, suggesting significant potential in the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors.

  • “I'm excited by the weight loss drugs, the GLP drugs. Their effects in general on health and addiction across all sorts of behaviors really surprised me. No one predicted that as far as I know.”

    Gwern·1:27:37
• $AI - Gwern's consideration of moving to San Francisco despite high costs implies a positive view on the AI industry's importance and growth, particularly in tech hubs.

  • “I think at this point, it mostly is just money that's stopping me. I probably should bite the bullet and just move anyway. But but but I'm a miser at heart, and and I hate thinking of how many months of writing runway I'd have to give up for each month in San Francisco.”

    Gwern·1:23:18

Bearish:

• $PSYCH - Gwern expresses serious concerns about the long-term effects and risks of psychedelic use, which could translate to a bearish view on psychedelic-related investments.

  • “With psychedelics, you're changing yourself permanently, irrevocably in a way you don't really understand, and exposing yourself to all sorts of malicious outside influences.”

    Gwern·1:31:34