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Holden Karnofsky is the co-CEO of Open Philanthropy and co-founder of GiveWell. He is also the author of one of the most interesting blogs on the internet, Cold Takes.

We discuss:

* Are we living in the most important century?

* Does he regret OpenPhil’s 30 million dollar grant to OpenAI in 2016?

* How does he think about AI, progress, digital people, & ethics?

Highly recommend!

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.

Timestamps

(0:00:00) - Intro

(0:00:58) - The Most Important Century

(0:06:44) - The Weirdness of Our Time

(0:21:20) - The Industrial Revolution

(0:35:40) - AI Success Scenario

(0:52:36) - Competition, Innovation , & AGI Bottlenecks

(1:00:14) - Lock-in & Weak Points

(1:06:04) - Predicting the Future

(1:20:40) - Choosing Which Problem To Solve

(1:26:56) - $30M OpenAI Investment

(1:30:22) - Future Proof Ethics

(1:37:28) - Integrity vs Utilitarianism

(1:40:46) - Bayesian Mindset & Governance

(1:46:56) - Career Advice

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe5:[["$","$L17",null,{"event":"page_view","props":{"route":"/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/holden-karnofsky-transformative-ai-most-important-century","surface":"web","episode_id":"94450268-36bf-4576-9089-bdbc5cdda619","plan":"free","is_anonymous":true,"podcast_id":"4e3d122c-a06b-45c7-8794-fa36d47d076e"}}],false,["$","script",null,{"type":"application/ld+json","dangerouslySetInnerHTML":{"__html":"$18"},"suppressHydrationWarning":true}],["$","div",null,{"className":"relative min-h-screen","children":["$","div",null,{"className":"mx-auto max-w-7xl px-2 sm:px-6 lg:px-8 pb-5 pt-2 sm:pb-7 sm:pt-3","children":["$","div",null,{"className":"lg:[padding-right:calc(var(--chat-panel-width,0px)+0.5rem)]","children":["$","article",null,{"className":"mx-auto max-w-4xl space-y-8 sm:space-y-10","children":[["$","div",null,{"className":"space-y-2","children":[["$","header",null,{"className":"space-y-3 sm:space-y-4","children":[["$","h1",null,{"children":"Holden Karnofsky - Transformative AI & Most Important Century","className":"text-[1.5rem]/8 font-semibold tracking-tight sm:text-4xl/10 text-2xl/8 font-semibold text-foreground sm:text-xl/8"}],["$","$L19",null,{"episodeId":"94450268-36bf-4576-9089-bdbc5cdda619","episodeTitle":"Holden Karnofsky - Transformative AI & Most Important Century","canonicalPath":"/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/holden-karnofsky-transformative-ai-most-important-century","canonicalPodcastSlug":"dwarkesh-podcast","podcastName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","episodeDate":"2023-01-03 13:00:00+00:00","summary":null,"description":"$1a"}],null]}],"$L1b"]}],null,"$L1c"]}]}]}]}]]