Satya Nadella – Microsoft’s AGI Plan & Quantum Breakthrough
Episode publishedPodcast: Dwarkesh PodcastDwarkesh Podcast
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Satya, thank you so much for coming on the podcast. So just in a second, we're gonna get to the two great breakthroughs that Microsoft has just made. And congratulations, same day in nature. Majorana, Zero Chip, which we have in front of us right here, and also the world human action models. But can we just continue the conversation we're having a second ago? So you're describing the ways in which the things we're seeing in the eighties and nineties, you're seeing them happen again. Yeah.
I mean, the thing that, is exciting for me, Dworkish, first of all, it's fantastic, to be, on your podcast. I'm a big listener, and, and it's just fun to be, and I love the the way that you do these interviews and the broad topics, that you explore. It sort of, to me, reminds me a little bit of my, I would say, first few years even, in the tech industry starting in the nineties, where there was, like, real debate about whether it's gonna be risk or CISC or, hey, are we really going to be able to build servers using even x86? Or, you know, we when I joined Microsoft, that was the, you know, in
When you think about what actually, which decisions ended up being the long term winners in the eighties and nineties and which ones didn't, and especially when you think about, you know, you were at Sun Microsystems. They had an interesting experience with the nineties.com bubble. People talk about this data center build out as being a bubble. But at the same time, we have the Internet today as a result of what was built out then. What are the lessons about what will stand the test of time? What is an inherent secular trend? What is just ephemeral? What stands out? It's
actually it it's interesting. I mean, I think the, if I sort of go back even at least the four big transformations that I've been part of. Right? If you say, the client, and the client server, so that's the birth of the graphical user interface and the x86 architecture, basically even allowing us to build servers. It was very clear to me I remember going to PDC in 'ninety one. In fact, I was at Sun at that time. And in 'ninety one, I went to Moscone, went to basically, that's when Microsoft first described a Win32 interface. And I said it was pretty clear to me, what was going to happen, where
Where is the value gonna be created in AI? That's
a great one. So I think the the at least in my current thing is there are two places where I can say with some confidence. One is the hyperscalers will do well. Right? Because the fundamental thing is if you sort of go back to even how Sam and others describe it, I mean, like, if, you know, intelligence is log of compute Mhmm. Whoever can do lots of compute Right. Is a big winner. Right. And the other interesting thing is if you look at underneath even any AI workload, like take chat GPT. It's not like everybody's excited about what's happening on the GPU side. It's great. But it's like the ra
I have so many follow-up questions. We gotta get to quantum in just a second. But so on the idea that maybe the models get commoditized, look, I I maybe somebody could make have made a similar argument a couple of decades ago about the cloud that fundamentally is just like a chip and a box. But in the end, of of course, you and many others figured out you guys have amazing profit margins in the cloud and you figured out ways to get economies of scale and add up their value add. And fundamentally, even forgetting the jargon, like, if you've got AGI and it's, like, helping you make better AIs, r
At scale, nothing is commodity. Right? So to your point about cloud, I mean, ever
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