Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner

Bullish:

• $REASONING - AI models are showing significant progress in reasoning capabilities, demonstrating the ability to break down problems, understand user intent, and self-correct.

  • “Have you read the reasoning traces of o three or Gemini 2.5? It's actually reasoning. It's bridging down the problem, it's thinking about what the user wants, it's reacting to its own internal monologue and correcting itself when it notices that it's pursuing an unproductive direction.”

    Dwarkesh·11:19
• $AIDEVELOPMENT - AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) development is predicted to either happen this decade or not at all, suggesting a critical period for AI advancement.

  • “AGI timelines are very log normal. It's either this decade or bust.”

    Dwarkesh·14:22
• $AI - Solving continuous learning in AI models is expected to create a significant leap in their value and capabilities.

  • “When we do solve continuous learning, we'll see a huge discontinuity in the value of these models.”

    Dwarkesh·5:57

Bearish:

• $COMPUTERUSE - Near-term breakthroughs in AI's ability to use computers for complex tasks like tax preparation are viewed skeptically, with multiple reasons to bet against such capabilities being unlocked soon.

  • “I'm skeptical. I'm not an AI researcher, so far be it to contradict them on the technical details. But from what little I do know, here are three reasons I'd bet against this capability being unlocked within the next year.”

    Dwarkesh·7:40
• $AI - The impact of AI on white-collar employment in the near term is expected to be limited, with less than 25% of jobs at risk even if AI progress stalls.

  • “If AI progress totally stalls today, I think less than 25% of white collar employment goes away.”

    Dwarkesh·5:17