Cycles Don’t End Before They Start | David Kalk & Pranav Kanade
Episode publishedPodcast: EmpireEmpire
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If money starts falling into alts, which it has not to date in the cycle, and and maybe maybe won't. But if it does, the market structure is gonna feel much different. I I I think it is not an environment where Bitcoin necessarily will be outperforming in the way that it does. I think there'll be a lot of new things to do. And this this boom bust pattern that we've seen, the fact that we haven't seen it is just a reflection of the fact that capital has not flowed into alts. I still think that capital allocators more generally are preparing since the election to move into the space in a way tha
This episode is brought to you by ZK Sync. Join the Elastic Network today at ZKSync.i0/empire. Thanks to ZK Sync for making today's episode possible. Alright, everyone. Welcome back to Empire. We have Pernod from VanEck. We've got Dave back on the show, Dave from Reflex Capital. Welcome to show, guys. Thanks
for having us. Yeah.
What's up? Pranav, you eating popcorn? What are you eating over there?
Candy? No. It's like this mouth, freshener that Indian people eat that my parents gave me. So Nice. It's not it's not like gum. It just digest. Interesting.
Alright. Good to know. Noted. Noted. Noted. For now, man. Sorry. So I wanna have you guys on because, I mean, Santi and I had this roundup that we were so this is coming out on Monday. Santi and I had this roundup on Friday, and we're pontificating about markets. And the unfortunate thing for Empire listeners is that Santi and I have no idea what we're talking about. So we figured we should actually bring on two people who actually know what they're talking about. So maybe, Pranav, I mean, I'd throw this first question to you. Like, just what is going on? Like, you know, bit Bitcoin hit is dow
So I sit I generally kind of bucket these things into, like, these sub asset categories. So I put Bitcoin in its own bucket, then I put sort of, like, the majors, like, Eat Soul and call it, like, what are the top five coins and coin market cap into one bucket. And then I put all this in a bucket, I put memes in a separate bucket. So, like, let's say there are four buckets out there. The altcoin we can we can start with the altcoin world, which is the easiest one to to start with, which is we start talking about this issue of increasing supply through vesting and low floats, and those floats u
you. Yeah. I think the been looking at what's going on with the constellation of the basis trade and CME futures. And what's been notable is that the funding rate of the basis trade has come down, which, you know, the strongest thing there is that, basically, the the implied to to pay someone to go short the market has come way down. So there's this long there's this large long in futures contracts. Someone has to take the other side. It can be an arbitrager who just shorts the future and goes long spot through the ETF or otherwise and does it purely to collect the yield, or someone can come i
Dave, is that for my simple trading brain, is that basically just buy Bitcoin spot ETFs, short the Bitcoin futures on c m a CME and basically farm the spread for, like, five or 6%? And now now That's
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