Hivemind: Can Bitcoin Reclaim $80k, State of The Market & The AI Trade

Bullish:

• $BTC - Bitcoin showing resilience during geopolitical tensions and equity weakness, with institutional capital potentially returning.

  • “I'm I'm happy with the I'm happy with the with the reaction crypto has had. Right? Like, generally speaking, if you had, like, a a day like yesterday in in equities where we were down, I don't know, like, one and a half to 2%, Generally, Bitcoin and crypto has just died, right? Like, minus five, minus 7%. And it's kind of like the first time in the last couple of months you've seen crypto kind of have a good reaction to to bad weekend news”

    Jason·1:59

  • “I'm actually fairly bullish Bitcoin. Like, I I bought like I said, I bought some over the weekend. I think I think if things kind of keep going the way they're going, Bitcoin specifically makes a makes another kind of resurgence with with institutional capital.”

    Jason·34:28

  • “Yeah, think Bitcoin is like very, like, looks good. I bought I've been buying Bitcoin like last few weeks, months. The only thing I've been buying, honestly”

    Disclaimer·48:37
• $ENERGY - Energy infrastructure is the next major bottleneck for AI compute buildout, with gas turbines and power generation companies seeing inflecting revenues.

  • “if you look at epoch AI or whatever, it seems like the next big bottleneck is going to be like energy and I'm like very AGI pilled. I think we're gonna have like compute build out for five years.”

    Disclaimer·30:36

  • “Like the gas turbine companies like I have a Siemens energy and I have a you know, company called bloom and a few others where it's just like they basically produce gas turbines. Their revenues like inflecting, they have massive wait lists and like gas turbines are the way to scale energy just because you don't rely on the grid”

    Disclaimer·31:01

  • “Yeah, it feels like energy is a really good spot though. Like just because you have like such cap, it feels like your downside is very capped on even the most expensive things in energy aren't trading that crazy”

    Disclaimer·47:15
• $DEFENSE - European defense spending set to increase dramatically with €800B commitment by 2030, creating sustained demand.

  • “I have some defense, like especially European defense because I think that's like up only from here. Like after what Trump's been doing, I think it's kind of yeah, Europe, no matter what they think they have to rearm, they've committed like €800,000,000,000 by 2030 in rearmament”

    Disclaimer·31:59

  • “Index is two x ed, the European defense index. Also forcing it, saying everyone needs to up to 5% for new spend.”

    Jose·36:11

  • “privates and defense are just like inflecting revenue like crazy right now”

    Disclaimer·36:30
• $NEAR - Near Protocol successfully pivoting to AI with credible founder, shipping actual products quickly, and becoming slightly deflationary from Intents revenue.

  • “they're able to ship actual products pretty quickly and they're pretty adaptable and near intense. He basically got pilled on intense by Adriana Nenoma and was like, oh this is actually pretty cool, let's do this. And now near intense does like all the Zcash volume, a bunch of other stuff”

    Ceteris·23:22

  • “even now just with Intense, they're now slightly deflationary because they they burn a portion of the intense revenue, and and they have some emissions for network security, and they're actually slightly inflationary, which, like, is pretty unheard of for an l one that's not kind of predicated on token transfers. It's like a business model in the L1.”

    Jose·24:35

  • “he's definitely one of the most credible, like, well, he's definitely the most credible Crypto AI founder in the space, I think. And yeah, like a lot of the stuff he's doing makes a lot of sense”

    Disclaimer·22:50

Bearish:

• $MSFT - Microsoft failing to execute on AI beyond compute ownership, with core Office products potentially becoming obsolete in AI era.

  • “I used Copilot the other day. And it's like shockingly terrible.”

    Disclaimer·27:48

  • “I'm not sure like, for instance, like office is still going to be a thing in AI era. Like, are you still going to do PowerPoint and, like, literally AI can just code you up a presentation in HTML as a website, right? And like Word and all this stuff. I just don't know that these things will still be like, going concerns.”

    Disclaimer·28:18

  • “hyperscalers have kind of like other than Google, have failed to execute on AI, like at the model or application layer, right? They're just owning the compute.”

    Disclaimer·28:02
• $AMZN - Amazon's retail business threatened by AI agents ordering directly, reducing to just a commoditized compute business.

  • “the same with like Amazon, like, I'm not sure you keep you're gonna keep ordering things on Amazon, you know, I think like agents are just gonna order directly and have access to like, all this information.”

    Disclaimer·28:43

  • “they basically are like compute businesses, right? Like that's the biggest thing that keeps accelerating... But at some point if the application and model companies are making all the money, they own the user, they're just gonna like vertically integrate up the compute stack”

    Disclaimer·28:59
• $INFOSYS - India's $300B IT outsourcing sector facing decimation from AI automation, with Leopold Aschenbrenner already shorting the largest player.

  • “India, for instance, has a $300,000,000,000 I was researching this the other day, it's a $300,000,000,000 IT outsourcing sector. And that to me just seems it's like it's 8% of the economy, you know, and that to me just seems like it's gonna get decimated”

    Disclaimer·39:10

  • “I was looking at Leopold Ashburner's portfolio, shorted Infosys this quarter, which is like the biggest India IT outsourcing company. I think that's really interesting.”

    Disclaimer·39:46