Hivemind: Still Time To Be Bullish?
Episode publishedPodcast: EmpireEmpire
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Nothing set on the hive mind as a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is strictly for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our own opinions, not financial advice. Hi, everyone, and welcome to another episode of the Hive Mind Podcast. The goal of the podcast is to provide an inside look into what we like to call the Delphi Hive Mind, bringing together some of our brightest minds from each of the divisions to share insights, alpha, and shitposts. Today with us, we have Cedars Paribus from our institutional research arm
Yeah, very briefly, right? To your point, kind of what the market was expecting and pricing in probably you could tell by the price action or like the lack of price action. Was just kind of just like algo, seismograph type stuff in the after, know, the immediate aftermath as they're trying to parse through the three word changes in the FOMC statement or whatever it is. The dot plot was, like, kind of interesting. Like, it's it's very clear that, like, the the committee isn't super aligned on what the what the path looks like. Right? Like, as of now, it seems like we probably have another 50 ba
you know,
tariff inflation, blah, blah, blah, when the reality is a lot of the risks are probably to the employment side of the mandate versus the inflation side. There's quite a bit of questions around, like, questions and debate after around, like, are they too focused on returning back to that 2%? Is that even like a, you know, a plausible or realistic expectation at this point? So it seems clear like everybody's now shifting away from the inflation mandate towards making sure employment doesn't blow up, which is probably a good thing. And I think the, you know, the outlook from here through year end
Yeah. No. I'm I'm I'm with you. I think we kind of market expected some softness in the summer just seasonally, and and it it didn't really materialize. Every, you know, potential hurdle or or just point of concern has been resolved in in a pretty good way. Right? Whether it's inflation numbers, employment numbers, GDP numbers, and then the Atlanta Fed come out projecting another 3.4% quarter, which just bullshit. See, I'm sure a lot of that's on the back of just the the AI CapEx spend and and kind of everything that's happening on that front. Yeah. I'm I'm pretty long going into the end of th
I don't know if did you guys see the Doorman article slash tweet thread? And he was like, this isn't really a bull market. If you look at the percent of tokens that are positive year to date, it's 25%. The ones that are down 40% or more is over 50% of tokens and positive over the last five months is about 55%. So he kind of likened it to like the MAG seven doing well and then the small cap index, which has basically been pretty bad for a long time. Like if you're a value investor in Travify, you've got kind of crushed for like, I don't know, like two decades now. You know, this is something we
Yeah. I think we kinda have this this is all seasons, just not all of. I don't think it's ever gonna be just this, like, broad bid on everything. I think you'll have rotations, but it's just gonna like, you're basically gonna have this world where the the obvious ones run. And then once multiples there get stretched, some people cash out, some people will end up round tripping, and then others will will cash out and move into riskier dog shit stuff. Right? And so I I I don't see a world where you just get, like, broad. Unless you have, you know, just break out on BTC to new all time h
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