Hivemind: Where Do Crypto Markets Go Next?
Episode publishedPodcast: EmpireEmpire
Transcript preview
Preview only
Until we see more certainty return to, like, yeah, these DATs and whatnot, people just aren't really wanting to buy crypto right now, I think, because it's just like, yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty. While Bitcoin does look fine, I think, like, just the fact that gold's ripping and that we saw equity at all time highs just means like and Bitcoin is kind of just chopping. It's like I don't know. It's not always a good sign. I know it normally lags a little bit, but you'd want to see Bitcoin go up here regardless of alts, in my opinion.
Hello everybody. Welcome to another episode of the Hive Mind podcast. My name is Cederis. Jose is not on, so I'm doing the intro today. We've got a bit of a different lineup today. We've got myself. I'm head of research at Delphi. We've got Jason, who's head of markets. We've got Jan, who is a partner's ventures partner. So we'd start
over again.
No, no, just leave it. It's fine. And we got LTR who actually has a new stream that's been on Twitter that you've probably seen. Hopefully you've seen it. If you haven't, go check it out. And he is on the markets team he's also just kind of like everywhere within the Delphi research squad. Yeah I think there's actually a lot that's kind of been happening over the past couple weeks. I think first and foremost we just want to talk about I think Jackson Hole actually was like after our last podcast and a lot has kind of happened since then. There was what was seen as like a really dovish Jackson
I guess, yeah, I'll just start with like my overall thought on Bitcoin. Like, I just think pretty much from like like mid August, pretty much from like August through like August and September, I've I've just like generally been cautious about it for for a few reasons. One, like, seasonality generally at this time is is not been historically great for for Bitcoin and and crypto markets. It's usually a period of, like, you know, chops, sometimes pullbacks in in September towards, like, the tail end of q three. So you have you have that seasonality aspect of things that I'm just always, you know
The sample is is is what? Six months in between rate cuts, you said?
So yeah. So, like, the the scenario is, like, when the Fed has been, like, on pause for six plus months, like, how does the market perform after they cut after that pause looking forward for, like, a three month period or a six month period? And the majority of the time, it's up three months after and six months after. So, like, when I look at it like that, like, on on the short term time frame, like, I don't really think this this rate cut's gonna do do too much because I think, like I said, it's mostly priced in. But on the longer term time frames, I think it's probably, you know, generally
On the MMAVs, all of them are under one, except for Sailor, who still has a 1.35 to 1.55, considering how you measure it. But if you look at the ETH ones and the Solana ones that are outstanding, they're all under I think as of this morning they were like 9,005 and 91, but they're also kind of dumping pretty hard right now. They're both down 10% today. So their M. Is probably sub 0.9 now. How do you think about this? I know there's no forced unwind, but
Yeah, that's the important thing, right? I'm not super familiar with every single debt and what their financing structures look like. But generally speaking, there isn't, like, a force unwind or anything like that. Right? So I think I mean, the way I think about it is, like, the selling pressure comes from, like, the expectation that these vehicles are tapped out. So then people kin
Keep exploring with a free account.
A free account preserves the short preview. Upgrade to Pro for the full transcript and episode chat.