How to Trade Crypto Cycles with Raoul Pal
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Between what's happening in technology and crypto, this is the greatest macro trade of all time. And it's not over yet. It is economically the most disruptive force we've ever seen. It is a nuclear bomb when it comes to deflation. People just have no comprehension how big this thing is. How do you allocate the capital between the two? This year, it's been technology stocks. Last year, crypto massively outperformed. So what do you hold over an extended period of time? A bit of both.
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Welcome back, everyone, to Empire. We have a very special guest. Couldn't have timed it better. Rahul, Paul, welcome to the show. You need no introduction. You've, obviously run Real Vision. You've super sharp on your macro takes. Very involved in crypto these days. What's going on?
There seems to be quite a lot going on, but nobody can explain it. Know, there's you know, where we are today, what day were you on the twentieth November talking today? And market's puking. And it's been in that weak trend. I've been looking at this for a while and there is this mismatch of liquidity that's happening at a macro level that's causing a lot of the issues we're seeing right now. And that is, without getting too deeply into the weeds of it, basically, because of the government shutdown, the Treasury built up its general account, and has not been able to really drain it yet. And th
Yeah. Look, it's a great read. I want to go front and center. NVIDIA reported earnings. You know, Jetson and Huayang is equally as important as Jerome Powell these days. They beat earnings. The expectation was 54, 55,000,000,000. They came in at 57. Guidance for next year was very strong. Stock's down today. Question in investing is how much are things priced in? Like the max seven, most managers, even though they may have been underperforming, it's been still a pretty good year for most folks. Are we just in a general deleveraging risk off cycle? People going into the holidays, they want to t
macro side, the business cycle, which is the main kind of driver of everything, has been very subdued for this entire cycle. And that's been driven by the high rates environment and the liquidity environment. If you on a forward looking basis, understanding all of the fiscal stimulus that's coming, plus liquidity stimulus that's coming and the probability of rate cuts coming, the chances are the business cycle is going to be a lot stronger going into the election year. Don't forget, we've got Scott Besson running the treasuries, the next hedge fund manager. He understands this game very well.
Yeah. Before we jump into 2026, I want to get your read on crypto. You talk about it being a pretty directly correlated to flows. You know, Bitcoin has a raised gains for the year, the stock market's still up. What's going on there? I mean, do you worry about that? Is crypto just reacting before and ahead of the stock market? Or is there something more kind of specific to the asset class?
No. I mean, there's two different levels. One is go back to its liquidity. So liquidity has hit crypto more than anything else. And that is the FedNET liquidity th
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