Lighter’s Token Launch, Erebor Raises $350M & Walmart's Crypto Strategy

Bullish:

• $STABLES - 2026 will be a massive year for stablecoin adoption both domestically and internationally, with everyday consumer use cases expanding significantly.

  • “2026 is gonna be a huge year for stablecoin adoption, not just in, you know, these, you know, call it treasury management use cases, card use cases. But it's gonna be really big and people actually using them domestically as well in everyday lives.”

    Rob·0:04

  • “the fastest growing stuff in the portfolio right now has to do with stablecoins or prediction markets”

    Rob·5:02
• $WMT - Walmart's One Pay app is already the #12 finance app, ahead of major banks and fintechs, positioning them to disrupt traditional banking with crypto integration.

  • “Walmart's One Pay is number 12. It's higher than Robinhood, higher than Wells Fargo, higher than Citi, higher than Bank of America, higher than SoFi, higher than American Express, higher than Coinbase”

    Jason·17:12

  • “they're all very actively looking at crypto and stablecoins as a way to provide financial services much more cheaply to their end customer”

    Rob·18:20
• $DEFI - DeFi continues to perform well with PerpDEXs like Leiter showing strong growth, and Dragonfly is more constructive than most on DeFi funding.

  • “our PerpDEX investments, a couple of them very notably Leiter, has been doing really, really well. Where, you know, generally along a lot of DeFi and, you know, DeFi continues to along and do well. And so we're, you know, actually, I think more constructive than most in terms of DeFi funding right now.”

    Rob·5:20
• $EMERGINGMARKETS - Emerging markets are historically cheap relative to the US, with expectations of outperformance over the next decade as US valuations reach extreme levels.

  • “The US has never been more expensive than it is today. And internationally, it has never been cheaper. And so if you were to ask me what happens over the next ten years, I would tell you that you're going make more money overseas than you are in The US”

    Rob·48:33

Bearish:

• $COMMUNITYBANKS - Community banks face existential threat from stablecoins and digitization, with only 500 of 5,000 US banks likely needed long-term.

  • “the reality is, in my mind, is that of the 5,000 banks in The US, we probably only need 500. We don't need 5,000.”

    Rob·33:14

  • “Right now we have an industry that has essentially built bad consumer product that is It only exists today because of the regulatory moat”

    Rob·32:15

  • “the G SIBs are getting bigger and the community banks are getting smaller. And that's predate stablecoins because the community banks are not competing.”

    Rob·33:02
• $EARLYSTAGE - Early stage crypto investing expected to go sideways while late stage growth equity sees more interest, indicating a shift in capital allocation.

  • “we think the early stage is probably still going to, you know, probably go sideways for a little bit and we'll probably stay pretty steady there”

    Rob·4:18

  • “I don't think we're going to see like a broad alt rally”

    Rob·3:16