State of The Market, How to Value Hyperliquid & Tempo Launches Mainnet

Bullish:

• $HYPE - Hyperliquid continues to dominate decentralized perpetual futures trading with strong revenue generation and market position, expected to maintain fee dominance over next 12 months.

  • “over the last ninety days, Hyperliquid is top of the leaderboard in terms of REV. Even total revenue, they pulled in $140,000,000 over the last ninety days.”

    Santi·17:01

  • “on that basis, hyperliquid continues to be probably the and my estimation is it likely dominates over the next twelve months in terms of fees, just given the continue to be very encouraged, by hip three and the activity you're seeing there.”

    Santi·17:22

  • “their ability to launch markets quickly, bootstrap liquidity quickly, to build a really great product from a technical perspective in the way that they think through how trades are ordered and how the matching works. Very clearly, they've done an incredible job, great product. It'll continue to grow.”

    Rob·18:07
• $OIL - Oil prices have spiked significantly due to Middle East conflict and infrastructure attacks, with continued supply disruptions expected from Strait of Hormuz closure.

  • “oil is sitting at, on on, what is it? A $116 or $120.”

    Santi·2:17

  • “before this Operation Epic Fury, I mean, oil is traded up roughly 50%. I mean, it started at $70 a barrel. Right when the war broke out over the weekend a couple weeks ago, it was traded up to $86 on hyperliquid. Now it's sitting at, like, what, $1.16, $1.20. I think it hit a peak of $1.30.”

    Santi·7:14

  • “the Strait Of Hormuz has been closed, which a significant amount of the world's oil supply goes through the Strait Of Hormuz.”

    Rob·3:55

Bearish:

• $LAYERONE - Layer 1 blockchains face intense competition and fee compression, with applications on top capturing more value than the underlying networks themselves.

  • “I do also agree with your point. Collectively, the app sitting on top of the L1 should be worth more than the L1 itself.”

    Santi·19:48

  • “applications can definitely be more valuable than some of the networks. There's no doubt that Polymarket and maybe Hyperliquid and some of these big guys will be more Polymarket is worth more than Polygon is today, right? And yet they have all of their volume on Polygon.”

    Rob·16:15

  • “I don't think that a lot of value will accrue to L1s unless they diversify and there's growing MEV.”

    Santi·24:22