“Accident Brewing” | Neil Dutta on Rising Slowdown Risks And Why He Thinks The Fed Will Cut Sooner Rather Than Later

Speaker 0: Forward guidance is brought to you by Van Eck, a global leader in asset management since 1955. You'll be hearing more about a Van Eck ETF later on. For now, let's get into today's interview. Very pleased to welcome back to forward guidance Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro. Neil, great to see you again.

How are you doing?

Speaker 1: Good to see you, Jack. I'm doing great. Happy summer.

Speaker 0: You too. You too. Neil, we spoke in, what was it, January or February. And at the time, you reiterated your call for a soft landing for that the US economy would not enter a recession, a view which which you have had for a while and which has played out. In other words, we had not had a recession yet.

It seems, however, like, over the past

Speaker 1: We haven't? Maybe a month. People think we've already started, Jack. But Well,

Speaker 0: we'll get into that. We'll get into that, Neil. But right now, it seems like you have changed your view. Your view has been evolving over the past few weeks, maybe a month. You you wrote it at the beginning of of June or end end of May that you thought an accident could be brewing as well as that the risks in the labor market appear to be building in one direction, the direction of not good.

So tell us, what are you thinking right now about the US economy, and how have your views evolves, since we spoke at the beginning of this year, and why have they involved evolved?

Speaker 1: We're still ultimately talking about how much is the Fed cutting and how much is the economy growing? I still think that's the dominating conversation in the capital markets. And if we're talking about that, that's consistent with soft landing and consistent with, you know, sort of risk appetite being okay. I still agree with that. But I also think that we're getting to a point now where the trade offs for the fed are not as obvious as they were a year ago.