Breaking Down Trump's Potential Trade & Economic Policies | Stephen Miran
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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Yeah. Thanks for having me back. You know, I think that the last time the paper with Noriela you mentioned before made made some waves and so forward guidance is, you know, is is the premier spot for doing, you know, important to exciting research as far as I could tell. Thanks for having me. Yeah.
Yeah. It's gonna be great. So the the title of your paper is A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System. I would love to just allow you to just set the stage in terms of the context of that paper, why you wrote it, before we get into the specifics. I
guess, let me let me first by giving a little disclaimer, you know, I speak only for myself and my own views, you know, the these are the views that you're gonna hear today just reflect my own personal thoughts. They don't reflect, anything related to the Trump campaign. They don't reflect anything related to Trump transition. They don't, reflect necessarily the views of Hudson Bay Capital or the Manhattan Institute. It's purely it's purely my own my own impression of things. Now that said, I think, you know, we're we're to frame this paper the way that I the way that I think about it is to sa
Yeah. So, obviously, we're gonna have the paper linked in full detail, with the show here. But aside from that, throughout this episode here, we're gonna actually unpack some of the specifics and just provide a a showcase of these specific implications in this catalog that you mentioned of. So I just wanna start off the back here by just level setting on getting an understanding of the context that we're heading into with the result of this campaign and why we're even talking about these ideas of of tariffs, etcetera. So I'd love for you to just begin by unpacking this this regime that we live
Yeah. Totally. So look. I think I think it's important if you're if you're if you think that the global trading system is is is unfair and in need of some restructuring. I think you need to ask why is that the case. Right? Like, what's at what's out of whack. Right? Why why do we run persistently, you know, very deeply negative trade balances? Why is the current account not, balanced for more than a few months, on any reasonable basis in almost half a century? What's going on that, you know, that that we run these imbalance these imbalances in the international sector? And the answer is that t
Yeah. So you mentioned the this triffin world idea, and I just want to, quote out a a a section of the paper here related to that. But you you write that indeed the paradox of being reserved currencies that it leads to permanent twin deficits, which in turn lead over time to an u
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