China Is Exporting Unemployment | Michael Pettis on Global Trade Imbalances, American Capital Controls, and the End of The Chinese Growth Miracle – Forward Guidance

China Is Exporting Unemployment | Michael Pettis on Global Trade Imbalances, American Capital Controls, and the End of The Chinese Growth Miracle – Forward Guidance — Transcript

Market views

Bullish

US MANUFACTURING SECTOR— The US is making significant efforts to rebalance its economy and support strategically important industries.
US DOMESTIC MANUFACTURING (E.G., EVS)— The Inflation Reduction Act is focusing on expanding Chinese auto manufacturing away from the US.

Bearish

CHINESE REAL ESTATE SECTOR— The real estate sector in China faces serious constraints on continued growth.
CHINESE LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT— Most Chinese provinces are effectively bankrupt and unable to service their debt without help.
CHINESE CONSUMPTION GROWTH— Consumption in China grew more slowly than GDP despite efforts to boost it.
CHINESE STOCK MARKET— The Chinese stock market is highly speculative and has little impact on the economy.
CHINESE BANKING SYSTEM— China is unlikely to have a banking crisis or a financial crisis.
CHINESE IMPORTS— Chinese imports showed weaker growth than expected, even dropping in some cases.
CHINESE RETAIL SALES— Retail sales in China, a proxy for consumption, grew less than expected.
CHINESE TRADE SURPLUS— China recorded the highest monthly trade surplus in history.

Not investment advice.

Mentioned

Market views