Commodities & Cyclicals Are 2026’s Mega-Cap Tech | Weekly Roundup

Bullish:

• $XME - Metals and mining stocks have massive runway despite recent gains, with supply constraints, AI infrastructure demand, and geopolitical tailwinds creating a multi-year opportunity.

  • “I'm super long metal still, and everyone, you know, every single surge, it's this race to call a top in metals, and it's just a local pullback, then they just They're not even getting to their twenty day moving averages now.”

    Tyler·6:07

  • “metals and other supply constrained commodities because they're gonna do well in rate cuts. They're gonna do well in an overheating situation. You have the AI tailwinds.”

    Quinn·4:43

  • “the bottleneck's now flowing further and further down the supply chain. So at the beginning, the bottleneck was for chips. Then the bottleneck was for data centers. Now the data centers are getting bottlenecked with the construction and the materials and the resources.”

    Tyler·6:57

  • “check this chart of XME to QQQ. So the metals and mining ETF do the queues. This is actually a shout out to Julian Brigden. He he mentioned this pair trade he thinks is, like, gonna be the multiyear golden trade.”

    Quinn·28:34
• $INFRA - Infrastructure and construction materials are becoming the new bottleneck for AI buildout, creating significant investment opportunities as hyperscalers deploy massive CapEx.

  • “Now the data centers are getting bottlenecked with the construction and the materials and the resources. So you're getting closer and closer to the ground”

    Tyler·7:05

  • “follow their flows. What are they doing? They're selling securities. They're selling stock, they're selling bonds, they're selling securities to the market, and they're buying shit towards a CapEx.”

    Tyler·32:55

  • “go buy the stuff they're buying where the bottlenecks are.”

    Tyler·33:13
• $TRAN - Transportation and old-school industrial sectors breaking out as capital rotates from tech to cyclicals amid economic reacceleration.

  • “this is the tran TRAN index is actually breaking out to the upside, and this is from yesterday, but still same the same sort of effect. But we're actually seeing old school industries getting, you know, capital into their into their sectors.”

    Felix·16:59

  • “have you looked at, like, industrials? They just go up every day.”

    Felix·28:18
• $RSP - Equal-weighted S&P 500 outperforming cap-weighted index as market breadth improves and rotation out of Mag Seven accelerates.

  • “you can see that that ratio at the bottom, which is the green, is finally turning up, which means RSP is finally outperforming the SPY. So the SPY is obviously like Mag seven heavy, and we're seeing that rotation out of Mag seven kind of getting more distributed.”

    Felix·16:36
• $XRT - Retail sector benefiting from tax changes and middle-income support policies as K-shaped economy begins to reverse.

  • “you're getting XRT. Retail is getting, you know, the rotation into retail.”

    Felix·17:28

  • “taxes are changing for some of the middle income on the big beautiful bill. So they're going to get a benefit from after tax income. If you make 66 ks to $3.17 ks, they get a big benefit.”

    Felix·17:56

Bearish:

• $QQQ - Mag Seven and tech stocks face headwinds from capital outflows, Fed balance sheet reduction, and rotation into cyclicals as companies exhaust cash for CapEx.

  • “short short mag seven, I'd say probably the things standing out, one of the big things standing out is the weakness across the mag seven relative to kind of every other asset”

    Tyler·3:50

  • “all the hyperscalers are out of cash, and they're investing in CapEx at increasingly growing numbers, 30%, 40% year over year growth or something. So, follow their flows. What are they doing? They're selling securities.”

    Tyler·32:46

  • “Sell them, sell their securities because that's what they're doing”

    Tyler·33:09

  • “short meg seven. Like, that I like, that trade, it has to work this year.”

    Tyler·46:38
• $BTC - Crypto underperforming due to correlation with NASDAQ and Fed's balance sheet duration reduction creating headwinds for risk assets.

  • “you can't you can't really own much crypto because it's so correlated to the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ has its issues and is going lower.”

    Quinn·5:08

  • “I think that's a huge reason for crypto's underperformance and will continue to be this massive steepening will just continue throughout the year.”

    Tyler·8:49
• $TLT - Long-term treasuries face selling pressure from Fed balance sheet reduction, foreign buyers retreating, and massive deficit spending needs.

  • “Who in their right mind would buy treasuries? And then you have China and Japan running away from the US treasury market.”

    Tyler·23:19

  • “the Fed's now selling their duration. This Are they? Yeah. They're rolling. I mean, effectively, yes. They're they're replacing their duration.”

    Tyler·23:42

  • “Longing bonds here, though, and into a overheating economy is also slow.”

    Tyler·37:09