Global Liquidity Cycle & the Worldwide Rush Into Hard Assets | Weekly Roundup
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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The skyrocketing amount of debt tells you that sometime in the mid thirties, gold is gonna test over $10,000 an ounce. What is going on is people are understanding that, governments, thank you very much, are debasing paper money. Maybe The US real economy is starting to accelerate now simply because there's been so much money thrown at it by the administration and by CapEx in AI, etcetera. So we're somewhere near the top of the cycle. They can't raise taxation anymore. They can't really curtail government spending. So what they've gotta do is effectively monetize. So this is a unique situation
Nothing said on Ford guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice, or necessarily the views of Blockworks. Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed. Alright. Good morning, everybody. Love to see you all here bright and early. My name's Felix. I'm the host of the Forward Guidance podcast at Blockworks, which is a podcast that focuses on the intersection of macro
Great to be here.
Yeah, it's a privilege to have you, Michael, because when it's Tyler with us, they put us in the furthest back room because it's such a cancel risk when we do this live. So you got upgraded.
I have to say I'm a great fan of full guidance and particularly the Friday wrap. So I think everyone's got to tune into that. It's really good with these guys and Tyler too. Appreciate that a lot.
Michael, for those that aren't familiar of your work here that are tuned in and listening, we'd love to just get a bit of background on what is your macro framework? How do you think about global liquidity? And what are some of these key drivers that you look like at? And why has that taken such a hold of you have quite a falling now these days, especially in the crypto world, because of those marginal drivers of liquidity. So what does that framework look like?
Okay, maybe let me start at the beginning. I originated the Salomon Brothers, the American investment bank. Salomon Brothers, for those of you who don't know, was the world's biggest bond trader worldwide. We had big proprietary desks, traded bonds all over the world, and really understanding the fixed income markets kind of meant understanding credit flows, money flows, capital flows worldwide. So I was on the research side and what we did is put into place a framework for understanding those money flows worldwide, and that's pretty much what I've run with ever since. It's really understandin
And so where are we in the global liquidity cycle? What's going on?
Well, I mean, the short answer is that we're in a strong up and we're probably nearing the top of the cycle. And I'm going to stress that we've got a cycle and there's a trend, and the trend is probably a lot more powerful and that trend which I think, courtesy of JP Morgan of being called the sort of monetary debasement trade, that everyone is now jumping on. And that is real. You know, I mean, a colleague of mine was at the LME conference this week talking to a scrap metal dealer, a precious metal scrap metal dealer who's been in the business thirty five years. He said normally, with a spike
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