How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd
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So, yes, three bubbles, stock market bubble, I think it's undeniable, the pessimism bubble, and finally, nominal growth bubble. These are conditions that we observed before every major revolution in history. Rapid technological change, acceleration of nominal growth, and at the same time a sense that things are unraveling. Mean the current conditions kind of remind me of late nineteen ninety nine early two thousand, so we could have this kind of inflationary acceleration, which makes me quite
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Yeah, not much has happened. So, you know, I'm sure it's be a brief episode here.
Yeah. Nothing to talk about. No craziness to say the least. No. Yeah, the complete opposite. Yeah, what a ten months. Crazy, crazy times. You, yeah, let's start off things. I would love to hear a bit about how you're thinking about 2026, because I think you have some out of consensus views, especially in light of, you know, if we rewind to late fall, you know, October, November, the government shutdown was happening. We were seeing some pretty sketchy headlines and numbers coming out of the labour market. And it seems like a lot of people were talking a bit about either near recession or at le
Yeah. I was only partially joking when I said not much has changed since ten months ago. I mean, I feel like every episode I go to, I'm still fighting the same windmills, you know, like Don Quixote and the Cervantes movie. So the the windmills are are these imaginary recessions that seem to come back like like reruns of the Scream movie. And every time I tend to be skeptical on it, I generally maintain my kind of great reset idea that we have this higher growth, higher rate, higher productivity, higher inflation, higher deficits. And that until proven otherwise, these kind of growth scares are
That's a great overview. And yeah, the geopolitical and political games leading into the midterms, we'll get into in the second half of the conversation. But I do want to you mentioned there about tax collections and I really want to just emphasize that and unpack that further because you wrote that actually tax collections, which is direct data from the daily treasury statement that the treasury publishes, is up 24% in January year over year. And I would just love for you to to really explain to the audience why this is the indicator that you believe so strongly in. Because I think people tha
I mean, on a personal level, I I was meant to work for the French Ministry of Finance and I that's that's where my fascination with taxes came because that's that's what the French Ministry of Finance does. It's heavy taxes population. That's your job. And I always thought, like, okay, if you you know, that that tax collection are the most natural measure of economic activity. I mean, especially that withheld in employment income tax and money for those who are not Americans. So when I get paid from from Sonix every two weeks, there's about 25% of my paycheck that doesn't even go to my bank ac
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