How To Position In A "Slowdown" Regime | Market Radar
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So we did get a risk off trigger, back in early October.
We're no longer in risk off. We've we've left risk off. We're in this regime now where the impulses are not strong enough to give you clear conviction to the downside, and they're obviously not strong enough to the upside either to give the green lights all the way to put back on leverage and size on the traditional risk assets. Growth impulses bottomed out in, November, and they've been pretty much on the upswing since. And I think that that's probably one of the leading signs that tell us maybe this
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What's going on?
It's beyond.
I think the the biggest shift here for this year compared to 2024 was that the markets have shifted greatly in their ability to put in steady trends. I mean, there are certain things that we're seeing steady trends on. Right? Like, gold, right, has been in a very consistent bull trend. But then you look at something like Bitcoin. Right? And it's just it's actually bearish trend from our model's perspective. But it it you don't have these, like, very long clean bull trends that you we had just a year ago. And I think, like, one of the reasons you're seeing a lot of dispersion across large macro
Yeah. Arty, how are you thinking about things? I I know you guys' model had a if I remember correctly, it went into risk on pretty quick into the April lows of Liberation Day and then rode the trend and now there's been this recent risk off move. We'd just love to hear about, yeah, like how, from discretionary side, how you both are thinking about it, but then also like how the models have performed and what can you derive from some of the insights? Like where do we kind of stand right now?
So we did get a risk off trigger back in early October, right when Trump dropped the China tariff thing. That wasn't the cause of going into risk off, we actually had our growth model deteriorating well before that, but it definitely exacerbated it, and I think it also just added a lot of noise to it, causing a short squeeze afterwards, so it did muddy the waters quite a bit. But we have been seeing over the last few weeks that growth expectations have actually been ticking up, we are now in more of a slowdown environment, which doesn't necessarily mean like full blown risk off where you get t
Yeah. And I think that the pivot that we saw earlier or mid q three for or early q four for this risk regime pivot, I think one of the things that has gotten a lot of people confused is the dispersion of performance across what we consider risk assets. Right? So like we were saying earlier, NASDAQ's not much change. It's up a little bit from our risk pivot, but it's not necessarily up a lot, but it's not down a lot either. Notable. But then you obviously have Bitcoin, which literally I I already I don't think we could have gotten a better exit on Bitcoin.
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