Inevitable Money Printing Will Drive A “Debt Doom Loop” | Arthur Hayes
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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It's gonna be very difficult for the government to politically expropriate assets from those who are in power already to essentially allow everyone to live this utopian lifestyle because of AI. Then what do you do? You just print a fuck ton of money and hand everybody out and then keep the capital structure the same. By law, the Fed is allowed to print infinite amounts of money to make sure the government can afford to borrow. And so why not do it now? If I had to bet, I bet on the government not wanting to rock the boat, and they're just gonna print the money.
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Please welcome Arthur Hayes and Felix up to the stage.
Awesome. Like you said, my name is Felix. I'm the host of the four Guidance podcast over at Blockworks, which looks at all things at the intersection of macro and crypto. So no better guest to represent that than Arthur Hayes. Hello? Hey. Hey. Good to have you. You are fresh off. You just released a new essay, and I thought, what's the best way to structure this conversation? And I love the way that your essays, which you become quite well known for among endless other things, is starting off with your high level macro theme, and that it always ends with how does that translate into crypto? Ho
Yeah. So the high level is how does Trump and his boy Besson, Buffalo Bill Besson, get from where they are today, where he controls the treasury to, you know, where they need to go, which is the treasury and the the central bank,
the US Federal Reserve, are
working together to print money to accomplish their economic policies. And so this is an essay basically talking about the minutiae of, like, how votes happen and how many people you need to have on which board to do what things and, you know, this bureaucratic quagmire that Trump is gonna try to pack his people on there so that he gets the policies that he
Got it. And, yeah, let's double click a little bit deeper into this you you mentioned this idea of yield curve control in it and just a fancy way of saying obscene money printing effectively. How do you discount the probability of that occurring over the next couple years, and how do you see that progression actually going from where we are today to that endgame?
So, I mean, if you listen to the rhetoric from both people, you know, Basinghe's wrote an op ed in in the Wall Street Journal about the Fed's policies. If you listen to Trump and all of his lieutenants and what's the big thing that they care about, well, they're really pissed off that The US can't go and bomb everybody that they wanna bomb without impunity because they don't have any bombs. So they wanna build more bombs, and so they need to have more companies building real things and not just, you know, MBAs doing LBOs in New York. And so they need to print money and revitalize the American
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