Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup
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Before we get started with today's show, I just wanna take a couple minutes to talk about permission list four, the next conference presented by BlockWorks. It's happening in June in Brooklyn, New York, and it's all for the developers and builders in crypto. So if you're interested in really understanding how the nuts and bolts of the crypto industry are being built and you wanna learn more, go ahead and get your ticket. I'm gonna be there as well as with Quinn and the rest of the Ford guidance gang. It's gonna be a ton of fun. So use the code f g 10 at checkout, and you'll get 10% off your ti
Thanks for having me. I mean, these are some incredibly wild markets. Obviously, the, policy side is changing multiple times a day, so, a lot a lot to catch up on. Yeah.
Absolutely. There is. Quinn, what's going on with you? How's things? Yeah.
It's good, man. It's nice to I mean, volatility's come down, but it's still 26. But it's it's at least seems like the market's not caring as much about every every single headline and, you know, blurted one liner, which is which is fun to see. You can actually invest or or approach investing in these markets at this at this point. Not that it persists, but, yeah, the last few weeks there were just like it's not investing. It's like coin flipping and and buying, you know, pukes, panics, and selling euphoria, and it's just like trading like a pendulum. But
Yeah. Suddenly, I felt like I was day trading. I'm I'm not a very good day trader. I'm I'm much better at, like, the three month type thing, but I was just like, holy crap. Like, suddenly these things resolve themselves so quickly. And you're like, okay. Well, when variance is this high, like, suddenly you get a 10% move. You have to rethink everything instantly, and that just happens in a couple hours. I
try writing pieces, and they, you know, they expire, you know, the next day before people even had a chance to read them. So, yeah, I get it.
It's like a twelve hour shelf life. Like, you you you tweet something, like, yesterday or the day whatever day it was, like, oh, short gold, and then it craters 3%. You're like, well, I guess I should close this. Like
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Danny, you've been writing to your point even though you're you're saying that your sub sacks are stale within twelve hours. A couple of them have actually been really excellent in in holding pretty sturdy here. And one of them was you wrote this thesis about being aware of the doom loop, and I think this was even before Liberation Day you wrote this. So very prescient. And, yeah, you you really laid out a couple frameworks for how to think about things here. So we're in this world of basically rethinking capital and trade flows, which really impacts everything. So I'd love t
So, obviously, everything changed, I think, late February when we first saw stagflationary survey data on the S and P PMLIs. So the equity market have been going down every single day, you know, since then. And I wrote a note before I got even got into the doom loop aspect. I wrote a note called, you know, the doomsday, which I called it, and the demographic time bomb. And the, you know, colorful title, not supposed to make you jump off, you know, a bridge or anything. But the the the thought was there are two major vulnerabilities to equity markets to consider how far they could go if these p
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