Is The Iran Energy Shock About To Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup

Bullish:

• $INFRA - Infrastructure and real-world assets will see massive investment as AI capital shifts from software to atoms/physical infrastructure.

  • “Now, maybe what we're really watching from a macro perspective is the blow off top in bits and a reemergence of investing in atoms, real things that change the world, nuclear and space, etcetera.”

    Tyler·1:02:12

  • “If AI is the biggest success ever and 10% of the workforce is laid off, you're going to need some FDR style Great Depression know, you're going to have to put the people to work and how that's going to be infrastructure and real things.”

    Felix·1:00:34

  • “So it's a part of the market where everyone's been chasing financialization and so there's not a lot of talent left in real things that you're going to have a flood of money going towards real things.”

    Felix·1:00:50
• $NATGAS - Natural gas demand will surge due to AI data center energy needs and LNG export disruptions from Middle East conflicts.

  • “I was actually getting super bullish on natural gas names prewar and waiting for and stocking them close to buying.”

    Felix·36:07

  • “natural gas is going to be one of the big, you know, funding drivers of the energy that's needed for this build out.”

    Quinn·34:05

  • “Were super flush with natural gas. There's endless amounts and we just have been slowly developing an ability to export it globally.”

    Felix·36:29

  • “Think it's really bullish for that sector.”

    Felix·37:32
• $OIL - Oil supply disruptions from Middle East conflict will last longer than market expects, with front-month volatility indicating acute stress.

  • “I don't really wanna fade oil right here”

    Tyler·15:20

  • “even if you stop the conflict right today, you'd still be in a supply crunch for the next couple of weeks regardless because of the backup.”

    Tyler·15:37

  • “it's still priced as if this resolves itself pretty quickly.”

    Quinn·38:55

Bearish:

• $ORCL - Oracle laying off employees to fund CapEx shows unsustainable spending and desperation in AI infrastructure race.

  • “Oracle came out today and they said”

    Tyler·32:35

  • “they were going to lay off a bunch of folks to basically fund their CapEx, and it's like, it doesn't get any worse than that.”

    Quinn·32:48
• $AIRLINES - Airlines breaking technical support as oil prices surge, with significant downside ahead.

  • “This is Citigroup's basket of airlines that broke the fifty day. It looks like you're you're basically, you know, almost have no support for a while.”

    Tyler·15:46

  • “as oil goes up or airlines go down”

    Tyler·15:59
• $PE - Private equity facing massive writedowns and illiquidity crisis, with BlackRock marking loans from 100 cents to zero.

  • “private equity is where I think all the bodies are.”

    Tyler·18:35

  • “BlackRock just marked one of their loan books from 100¢ on the dollar to 0.”

    Tyler·18:42

  • “We've obviously seen problems with BlueOwl. We've seen a lot of other funky issues in private credit.”

    Tyler·18:48
• $TLT - Bonds no longer a safe haven with 6% deficit to GDP and yields below nominal growth, making them fundamentally unattractive.

  • “I just can't, for the life of me, understand who would buy bonds.”

    Felix·43:12

  • “bonds yields are trading like 4%, which is below our deficit level. It's below nominal growth levels.”

    Felix·44:13

  • “I'm actually short bond volatility and short bonds. But it's just ugly. Like, there's just no reason to own it.”

    Felix·45:32

  • “bonds are not gonna act the way you hope. They're not gonna be that safe haven”

    Quinn·40:51