Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds | Andy Constan
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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Those who agree that the deficit will always grow are gonna say nothing stops this train. Based on the numbers, the train has long since stopped. Right? You add up tariffs and big beautiful bill, the train has stopped. In fact, it's going in reverse. For now, my fiscal impulse is clearly it's clearly contractionary. There's no way around it. The only thing that would change my view on fiscal is
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How are you? Great to see you.
Great to
see you as well.
Yeah. No shortage of things to talk about. A lot happened last week and feels like we're just kind of picking up the pieces and figuring out where we go from here. So, yeah, I wanna frame up this conversation through what feels like three important levers that we'll we'll deep dive into each of them and then start to unpack how to think about the confluence of all three. So obviously there's the Fed and what's going on over there. There's treasury and QRA policy and what Scott Bassett is doing in that lever. And then there's this fiscal impulse as well of the big, beautiful bill that's passed.
Oh, the meeting came in exactly as I think I and everybody else expected, which is they didn't cut and they basically recognized slight slowing while also not really advocating for anything like a cut with any degree of certainty in September. I would say it came away a bit hawkish when it actually dropped. Powell seems patient. He tilted the Bowman and Waller dissents and I think in a good way in that, these fed governors and fed presidents tell you what they think. Some may say a little too frequently. And they are constantly telling you what they think. And certainly Chris Waller was very,
Do you see any sort of signal in that Googlers skipped that meeting and then resigned early? Is there anything to read there in terms of
this I don't know. I'd like to think it was all innocent and I don't know. But conspiracies are going to be theorized. It certainly didn't matter for the outcome. She was a stronghawk. She was definitely in the no cut camp on the dots. So they didn't need her to do what they did. God forbid, it's actually something personal and around her health. But what I'm pleased about is that I'm tired and I think the market is tired and I think it does nobody any good to have the next governor which was going to be cougars replacement and who is likely to be the fed chair named as soon as possible. And n
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