Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession

Bullish:

• $US STOCKS - Positive outlook on US stocks based on market signals and company profits.

  • “Stock market's telling me that companies are fine. The data tells me that profits are fine. Not booming, but they're fine. And businesses don't lay off until they've been losing money for a while.”

    Michael·0:00
• $US DOLLAR - Expectation of higher interest rates for a longer period, supporting the US dollar.

  • “So if I'm betting interest rates, which is a large part of what all this goes directed towards, I think interest rates stay higher longer. Not as high for as long as I thought 3 months ago, but still much higher for much longer than is currently priced into the year in Hong Kong market.”

    Michael·0:00
• $EMERGING MARKET STOCKS (EX-CHINA) - Positive outlook on emerging markets excluding China due to economic growth.

  • “That's where the that's the part of the world that's crawling 5% now because that's the part of the world that's taking over from China.”

    Michael·0:00

Bearish:

• $EUROPEAN STOCKS - Cautious view on European stocks despite signs of economic traction.

  • “Europe seems to be finally getting some traction. Europe's big. So if Europe gets some traction, that will help the Chinese be able to export their way out. The United States needs to keep growing.”

    Michael·0:00
• $CHINESE YUAN - Negative outlook on the Chinese Yuan due to weak economic indicators.

  • “The currency is weak. I mean, it is all the earmarks of a bad economy.”

    Michael·0:00