Peter Boockvar on an Overheated Stock Market, China’s Green Shoots, and the Private Credit Bezzle
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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Jack: Forward guidance is brought to you by VanEck, a global leader in asset management since 1955. You'll be hearing more about a VanEck ETF later on. But for now, let's get into today's interview. I am so happy to welcome to forward guidance for the first time, Peter Boockvar of the Bleakley Advisory Group and author of the book report. Peter, it is great to have you on forward guidance.
I can't believe this is the first time, we're doing this because at at my first job at Real Vision, I think on, you know, my first or second day, I met you there. You were being interviewed. So from the start of my financial journalism career, I I have known you, so I was really glad to have you on for
Peter: guidance at last. Thanks, Jack. It's I'm happy to be here, and, congrats on all your success so far.
Jack: Thank you, Peter. What are you thinking about in markets? What is keeping you up at night?
Peter: I I've been worried about, over the last couple of years with the, sharp rise in interest rates and the economy's adjustment to that, of more of a death by a 1,000 cuts. Because when interest rates jumped at the fastest pace in 40 years, not everyone is impacted, by that all at once. It's all depends on what your, when your loan was coming due. And that on top of the cumulative rise in inflation, I do think that we're beginning to really see the economy rolling over to growth rate at best 1, 1 and a half type percent type activity, with threats that it's even weaker than that. I mean, t
If you look at manufacturing, it's in a recession. If you look at the pace of existing home sales, it's in a recession. On the other hand, the higher income consumer is doing just fine, travel, leisure, hospitality, doing just fine. Anybody who's the beneficiary of all this government spending doing just fine. So it's, it's a highly mixed economy, but I think in the aggregate there's real growing threats here.
And then we throw on the top of that, the labor market, which, to me is, is really cooling off. So I think the Fed is going to be cutting interest rates in September. They'll probably follow that up in December. But I think one distinguishing factor this time around compared to the last few decades is that any rate cutting cycle is gonna be much more methodical and the Fed's just not gonna have the same license to respond to an economic downturn like they have in the past. Because I believe that inflation is not just coming down to 2% and magically staying there.
I think inflation volatility is here to stay. Let's enjoy the deceleration we're seeing right now. But the the war inflation is not one, unless inflation stays down, and that remains to be seen.
Jack: And do you think that a potential slowdown, or the the series of mini recessions that you're talking about the lower end consumer, that the housing market, that that will be a stopper or bring inflation down because recessions are bad, inflation is bad, but often a a recession causes inflation to go down and sometimes causes deflation, which in itself is you know, can be bad. Are are you worried about both recession and inflation? Or, you know, if there is a broader slowdown, do you think that will break inflation down?
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