Rethinking Rate Cuts: Are We Fueling Inflation Or Controlling It? | Warren Mosler

Bullish:

• $OILSERVICES - Higher oil prices are expected to lead to increased drilling activity, benefiting oil services companies.

  • “You get oil up to a 100, you're going to have a lot more drilling and a lot more production. You let the price go down to 40 or 50, everybody's going to be shutting down.”

    Warren·39:04
• $DEFENSE - Potential shift towards increased domestic production of critical military supplies due to national security concerns.

  • “We don't wanna import critical products for our military if people were gonna go to war with, you know, if we're importing from them because we might need them and then we lose the war.”

    Warren·43:54

Bearish:

• $TLT - Large budget deficits and increasing interest expenses are expected to put upward pressure on yields, challenging the idea that interest rates will decline significantly.

  • “The budget deficit was up to 6 or so percent of GDP, and that's continued to be the case. And the, a large component of that was the interest expense, maybe more than half 60%. We're now running at an annual rate of maybe 1,200,000,000,000 in interest expense, and that's going to keep going up.”

    Warren·2:33

  • “I think they're gonna be very wrong on unemployment. They thought I think I read, the last forecast from November was 4.4. It's not.”

    Warren·36:20