Should We Be Worried About Jobs Report Revisions? | Guy Berger

Bullish:

• $HOSP - The hospitality sector, particularly hotels and restaurants, may experience renewed growth due to reduced access to immigrant labor.

  • “When you look at some of the industries that have been hit by immigration, again, is a sector, it's not the whole economy, but hotels and restaurants, that looks like a sector that's actually experiencing renewed reheating because I'm guessing they just have fewer they rely on immigrant labor, both documented and undocumented, and that tap's been turned off.”

    Guy·54:02

Bearish:

• $LABOR - The labor market is expected to weaken despite recent stability, with ongoing immigration squeeze potentially exacerbating the situation.

  • “My gut is still the weakening impulse will eventually kick in.”

    Guy·54:02

  • “The immigration squeeze is ongoing and has the potential to get worse because we are still, to some absorbing, in the process of absorbing that big boost of labor supply.”

    Guy·26:28
• $RATES - Interest rates may not decrease significantly unless inflation improves dramatically or the labor market weakens considerably.

  • “I do think that if inflation does not improve dramatically and if the labor market doesn't take its turn for the worse, the amount of easing that's going to happen is going to be small.”

    Guy·54:02