The Bottom Is In For Yields, NOT Equities | Vincent Deluard
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Crypto's premier institutional conference is returning to New York on March. We're hosting one of the world's best crypto conferences for institutional and professionals alike. It's gonna be a ton of fun. I'm gonna be there hosting a variety of different panels. I'll be doing a fireside chat with Mohammed El Erian, a different macro panel with Jim Bianco and Joseph Wang. And we're also gonna be doing a live Ford guidance round up there where myself, Tyler, and Quinn will be chopping it up live for the guys' Emporium. So make sure to get your tickets. It's gonna sell out quick. I know it. It's
I'm very happy to be here, and, fun day to
speak. Fun day to speak. Lots going on to say the least. Okay. So I wanna start the show by rolling up the red carpet just a little bit. And and the reason I say that is because you wrote a report in December that was titled beware of the Ides of March. And the more I read into it before this interview, the more I was impressed with just how pressured of a call all the different aspects of that report were because, you know, there's a lot of different things in there. You know? You had a you had a thesis about inflation in terms of looking at, like, these seasonal adjustments that we we can ge
At the other day, seasonal adjustments. Right? I mean, especially in in in in in January, really, what you look at is, the process of a complex, seasonal model at the fed more so than than any actual data. And, you know, seasonal models work, if, you know, benchmarks to the past. So if the present is reasonably similar to the past, your signal response is gonna work. If, as I believe, we we are in somewhat different regime, when it comes to inflation, what other seasonal adjustments you have is is not gonna be enough. So, typically, what the BLS does in January is that it says, oh, a bunch of
I was gonna say it's it's funny that you say that because it feels like the bond market had the exact same reaction, which is, you know, we don't really care about these the minutiae anymore. Nobody's really talking about Super Core. It's just like, okay. We see what's going on in the broader world, the broader, like, global landscape right now, and there's a lot more moving parts that are affecting, you know, bond yields, as opposed to just the singular prints. So were you you weren't surprised to see the bond sell off today? No.
Not really. I mean, I'm I'm sure we'll discuss that later. I my concern is that we've seen the low in yields, and, yeah, obviously, it's not not a good look for the bond market. Right? I mean, you get a a a hardly anticipated CPI report that's, you know yeah. It was a better print than than than people expected, I think, at the end of the end. Not not usually, but but better. And and then you see yields go up on that day, which is kind of consistent with my view that the underlying dynamic in the bond market is is not good.
Circling back to that report from December, you mentioned this idea that we would see this head fake in the beginning of the year, and then that would roll over and we start to see this this bit of a slowdown in the economy. You were characterizing the slowdown as being a bit more of a stagflationary tilt to it. So has that gone through how you'd expect it? Because, obviously, you know, we're seeing you just look at the ISM data that came out last week, like, you know, new orders are falling off a cliff, but but prices paid is surging. So is this going how you expected?
Yeah. Absolutely. And I mean, if you would just do a a search for speculation on Google Trends, I'm sure you you see
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