The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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What's up, everybody? Before we get started on the show, I just wanna give a quick shout out to our new forward guidance newsletter. It runs 5 days a week. It talks about all things macro, digital assets, and how the 2 worlds are starting to collide together. I'm a writer for it at least once a week as well as a very talented editorial team. And so check the link in our description to go sign up today. It's free, and you won't regret it. Alright. Back to the show. Welcome back to another episode of Ford Guidance. And joining me today is Tony Greer of the morning navigator and longtime veteran
thanks for having me on, man. It's great to be here. Yeah.
Yeah. Great to have you here as well. It's been a it's been an exciting, Tuesday here in markets. We had an interesting morning. Really, you know, nobody else I wanna talk to that would be better at unpacking this. So we had an interesting morning where we had equities, you know, look to be pretty good. Then we got a few interesting headlines around the semis trade. ASML came out with some sales, revenue figures that were pretty in the dumps and basically just dropped all guidance. And that send that set them down 16%, and with that, the queue is down over a percent from here. This is just off
Yeah. Sure. Man, Felix, there's a lot to unpack there, but I think, you know, we can start with the semi sector and work backwards since you mentioned that. You know, it was interesting to see NVIDIA NVIDIA trying to break out to new all time highs and then get rejected by this headline, which sounds like, you know, it's the Biden administration is discussing capping sales of advanced AI chips from NVIDIA and other American companies. So, obviously, there's the knee jerk reaction to that that takes about 10% off the price. It also puts a kinda scary false breakout up at the top of the chart. S
So Yeah.
Yeah. It's pretty amazing. So to me, it's like, man, you know, we also just had a week where transports rallied 5%. They're trading at all time highs. Industrials are breaking out to new all time highs. So, man, if you wanna be short or bearish the S and P, good luck with that, man. You know, like, to me, this thing's firing on all cylinders. So
it seems like nothing wants to hold it down. And I'm I'm glad you brought up that comparison of what tech tech did because if we rewind it to 2022, you'd probably get the opposite story on a hot inflation trend. We'd see tech down, but tech soared. So it's interesting. I mean, it feels like, you you know, if you're yeah. Like you said, if you're an equity bear, you're struggling here. You know, there's there's the dynamic of, okay. We got a lot of rate cuts. We we we got a 50 bps cut, but, you know, that's gonna drive drive a a pump and bid in equities here. But we've also seen over the last w
Yeah. Well, with with the rotation, I'm just turning my head to look at the year to date rotation because that's really important to me, Felix. You know, we've got semiconductors up at the top of the sector leaderboard up 42%, but then we've got home builders, gold miners, utility, home construction, financials. All of that's up over 25% on the year. So, man, you know, I mean, you know, we're chasing the semiconductor sector, but it's hard to keep an index down when financials and gold miners and industrials are breaking out like they are. Right? It's like a cyclical plus tech plus tech rotati
Yeah. I mean, totally. Especially because, like, you know, the first part of this year was such a narrow rally in these, you know, specific semis, and there's concern that it was just a a
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