The Die Is Cast For A 2025 Recession | Neil Dutta

Bullish:

• $TLT - Neil sees value in long-term Treasury bonds, aligning with his recession outlook and expectation of Fed rate cuts.

  • “I think there's still good value in in the long side of the yield curve here.”

    Neil·51:20

Bearish:

• $LABOR - Neil expresses a bearish view on the job market, citing dimming prospects and specific sector weaknesses.

  • “The light on the job market is definitely dimming. I don't think that's a particularly controversial thing to say.”

    Neil·23:09

  • “You look at construction employment, residential construction employment that's coming down.”

    Neil·49:35

  • “And then the manufacturing sector, you know, you look at what's going on in ISM employment. You know, a lot of these sort of indicators are looking at factory jobs doesn't look very promising.”

    Neil·49:35
• $XHB - Neil points to weakness in the construction sector, particularly in residential construction employment.

  • “You look at construction employment, residential construction employment that's coming down.”

    Neil·49:35
• $XLI - Neil highlights weakness in the manufacturing sector, citing declining employment indicators.

  • “And then the manufacturing sector, you know, you look at what's going on in ISM employment. You know, a lot of these sort of indicators are looking at factory jobs doesn't look very promising.”

    Neil·49:35