The Fed Is Trapped As Oil Drives Inflation Higher | Weekly Roundup
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Think that we're in a in a place where a lot of the macro is gonna be driven by what's happening with the war in The Middle East. So as this goes on, I think it's a real crisis for the global economy. I think it makes a global recession very, very probable. So this negative shock, I think, makes monetary policy difficult. Rates are very far above zero, so I wouldn't look to the Fed. Where we could get more liquidity is from the commercial banks.
You're kind of looking at, like, a minimum sort of six month pause on Fed action unless you get a very significant deterioration in the labor market. So what this kind of does to me is put a lid on risk asset prices and multiples. Yeah, I kind of think policymakers are trapped in a way. We always have a tendency to fast forward the end result because every single crisis has ended with a great debasement and printing event. Each one also takes some sort of catastrophic circumstance to get us there.
Feels like things are going in the the wrong way, but I do wonder, like, you guys feel like there is enough runway to steer this ship around before November? No.
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All right. Afternoon, everybody. Welcome to the afternoon forward guidance track. This is the first time that we've done one of these dedicated forward guidance tracks. So this is gonna be the one stop shop for all things at the intersection of macro and crypto. We've got a jam packed afternoon ahead of us here. Starting things off with a forward guidance roundup. Super excited to be joined by my fellow roundup co hosts, Quinn Thompson of Lecquer Capital and Joseph Wang of Monetary Macro, who is a a regular participant on these. So, yeah, we'll start with that. We have a jam packed afternoon,
Good conference so far, Felix. Nice work. As the newly appointed head of content at BlockWorks, I'd say, you know, it's the largest DAS yet, so you've got to be doing something right.
Congratulations. This guy I know you guys can't see it, but this has been an awesome conference. We have really awesome speakers. And as Felix mentioned, sitting VED governor coming on later as well. So this has been an amazing conference. Congratulations, guys.
Yeah. Thanks, guys. It's, it's been really interesting to see you know, there's been talking back and forth. Actually, we're just talking with, James Safer who's in the crowd on Bloomberg. He's talking about the the dichotomy in in markets right now, especially in the crypto industry between how excited the institutional crowd is versus how, I don't wanna say fully depressed the retail crowd is and just that distinction. But it really is true when you're here and, you know, we're hitting these record sales of this conference and, you know, James is talking about what's going on in the ETF side
Well, I think it's we're in a, in a place where a lot of the macro is going to be driven by what's happening with the war in The Middle East That affects us directly most directly through high energy prices. Right? So Brent is around a $100. It's been surging, and depending on how long this war can go on, it could go even higher. From what I he
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